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S&S: CaoimhinTheCape/JeenLeen

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104
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
11:06 PM ET (US)
Book Wombat did not claim until after that Night. When he claimed, he said he baned himself N1 and me N2. I believe that even if he was converted, since it's dangerous to lie (in case of watcher/tracker powers) and no harm to their faction for cult!BW or town!BW saying that. Honestly, I also believe he baned himself N3 for the same reason; a cult!BW would want to stay alive, and a town!BW wants to stay town.

By the way, I started to write a post, thinking I figured out something nifty, but it summed to "if Libro flips wolf, you all can probably trust me and Valmark"--which isn't really saying anything worthwhile. And it gave good advice to the wolves and a reason for the Town to start suspecting me... so not gonna post it, but htought I'd share it here.
On the plus side, the fact that you didn't lie and call me a cultist helps solidify you as Town to me, since (if the worst-case is true) doing so would effectively win the game for the cult (they lynch me, convert someone tonight and control the vote.)

I like the strong Libro wagon since I suspect he is a cultist, but I admit it doesn't help us ferret out a ton as the cultist are likely to jump on the wagon to avoid suspicion.

On the other hand, since the cult could effectively win tonight if no cultist dies, I don't think they'd sacrifice Libro to gain towncred. That is, if Libro flips wolf, I think we can trust me and Valmark as non-converts.
If the cult would win, today is the day for a cult!seer to lie, since being discovered later doesn't matter. Sacrificing Libro risks losing the game.
If the cult wouldn't win (since they hit a baned or CC earlier in the game), [I]maybe[/I] it's worth it, but I feel they'd go after someone powered. E.g., it'd make sense for cult!me to rat out my Town buddy, in order to hamstring the town.
103
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
08:14 PM ET (US)
Captain Cap could have been a target, so it's lucky that power was on him.

As for BW, if he's already converted I have to assume that there's another Doc or another role that can stop conversion. Possibly Outsider, but it's probably better if he doesn't claim yet, so we'll have to wonder. Depends on if we think Cult would go for BW Night 2. He didn't claim before then, right?

Watcher would work. If he's Baner, I wonder why they weren't set up as Masons like we were.
102
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
07:58 PM ET (US)
I did wonder if anyone might say somethign about that.
On the other hand, it was about time for me to leave the computer, so little time for me to wait.

But it should be fairly clear to anyone who thinks strongly about it, who my buddy is (at least if they assume I'm not lying.) But I could see some people thinking it's Valmark. Probably some thought it was Libro before my vote today.
I wonder if Caerulea ghosted. She's probably still Town (assuming you not the fool), so that's bad.

While I want to contemplate things assuming the worse-case scneario in regards to number of cultist, I wouldn't be surprised if there's really 2 instead of 3 currently. Captain Cap looked like a good conversion candidate N2, so I hope they wasted it. I *really* hope they didn't go for Book Wombat when he was vulnerable; we need that baner.

I'm curious what The Outsider is. He's hinted at powers, but stayed quiet. Guessing watcher/tracker, or possibly another baner. If there's 2 seers, I could see 2 baners. I'm mainly sure he's not a voider, since he said a voider would speak up by now.
101
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
04:39 PM ET (US)
Lol, you happened to get feedback right after my post. What a coincidence!
100
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
04:36 PM ET (US)
Thanks for the okay to out you. I'm hoping that they're assume it's because you've been townish talkative, while Libro quiet. But, yeah, some pushback is expected.
99
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
04:17 PM ET (US)
Also, I'm reading the thread now and we will more than likely have to explain why you haven't considered me for voting in your post. I figure we wait until they really push but if you need to out me that's fine.
98
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
04:14 PM ET (US)
The Outsider is villager alignment.

So, my results are consistent at least. You think the Cult risked trying to get you/BW or did they pick someone else to go after?
Edited 01-21-2021 04:14 PM
97
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
02:23 PM ET (US)
I'm surprised! "Valmark is villager alignment."
As am I.
96
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
10:09 AM ET (US)
I'm good with sticking to Valmark.

I think I mostly said that to share thoughts/converse for fun, and also an ego thing to make myself feel better if you are the original cultist and have been playing me. (If so, great game!)

But, yeah, I'll scry Valmark.
95
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-21-2021
08:14 AM ET (US)
I mean, I get that. But one of us needs to check Val or Libro. If you really wanna check me you can, but you'd have to let me know quick - I won't be around much through the end of the night.


Cats, I don't think so but it was a while ago. I was one of the original cultists in the last game, but I don't think you played that one.
94
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
10:24 PM ET (US)
I'll stick to Valmark.

I admit I considered lying to you that I'm scrying Valmark, and scrying you instead... but, yeah, I also prefer we trust each other. (Kudos on a game well-played if you are the initial cultist, though honestly I hope you didn't get stuck with starting the cult in two games in a row. Were you the cult leader in the Cats game?)
93
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
04:10 PM ET (US)
Valmark sounds good. I think that's the better of the two options. If Valmark is inno, then we go for Libro tomorrow.

I'll check Outsider again. I could check you or BW, but honestly I'd rather assume you were on my side and we could use info on everyone else. If I change my mind I'll let you know. Also, if Outsider has changed to scum alignment for me, we know I'm a true seer.


I think Libro is more likely to be Cult, but if we check Valmark we learn Val's alignment too. If Val comes back clean, tomorrow's lynch will be between me and Libro and I'll have to reveal.
Edited 01-20-2021 04:12 PM
92
JeenLeenPerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
04:00 PM ET (US)
I like your math/reasoning, but low on time to fully process all of it. How about you choose my target for tonight?
I'm on Valmark currently, but I can see making him our default target tomorrow if we don't get any scum reads with tonight's other scries. But you seem right that the original cultist is (assuming we're both true seers) Libro or Valmark.
91
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
03:25 PM ET (US)
We should also be worried if BW gets converted, the game might become unwinnable. We need some way to stop conversions and an immune townie is gone. If we have no way to prevent a lynch, I assume the game would auto-end (we'd lynch a cultist but they will get one back that night).
90
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
03:12 PM ET (US)
Out of everyone else:

Outsider is a good check. I thought he claimed power role, plus it's been some time since we checked.

BW/Jeen: If we check whichever one of you is being protected, we'll get no result and be sure that you're on our side. If we check whichever one of you is not protected, we know who was protected and the alignment of the other. Two for the price of one.
89
TheCapePerson was signed in when posted
01-20-2021
03:06 PM ET (US)
Hold on, math time. We know that there was at least 1 Cult left at the end of Day 2, or the game would be over. That cultist:

Can't be any of the following: Book Wombat (protected self), Caerulea (checked), CC (villager), Elenna (checked), Jeen (lynched Xi), Outsider (checked).

That leaves myself, Libro, Valmark. It has to be one of those three. Leaving myself in for full disclosure, even though I know it wasn't me.

So, if we check one of Valmark or Libro, the other is likely the opposite alignment. If Valmark/Lirbo is clean, we know Libro/Valmark was the other original cultist. If Valmark/Libro is cult, we get a cultist but don't know about the other for sure.



Took me a while but I got back to where you started at least. If we want to be sure of a result, you should be the one to check either of them. One of us should check Val, I'd suggest you do it but it's your call. I'd suggest you since we know that your results have come back correct and we'd want to be sure of this. Getting this check right could be telling us two alignments.
Edited 01-20-2021 03:21 PM
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