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12:47 PM ET (US)
You're a very helpful website; couldn't make it without ya!

My blog; โรงงานgmp
Edited 04-10-2017 12:47 PM
Condude1Person was signed in when posted
03:58 PM ET (US)
The game is over!
08:57 PM ET (US)
Honestly, it would be a bit of a shame to win it tonight, as D4 would be a very interesting day...
08:54 PM ET (US)
Justy - have to expect that he realizes he has plague. He probably thinks that he caught it from Harb on N2. Have to expect that he will visit Harb. That's the smart move.
Harb - he knows he has the plague, and will try to visit someone who already has it, or an Assassin suspect. I am not sure if he suspects me or not. The smartest move for Harb, I think, is to assume that Keirador caught the plague on N2 from Justy, and to visit Keirador. There is some risk in that, as it's possible just went into N2 healthy. But I have to proceed as if Harb will visit Keirador. Maybe I get lucky and he scum reads Malevolence and visits him, but I think there's just as much chance he scum reads me and visits me after my crummy EOD3.
Conq - handsome.
Smith - if he visited Harb or justy last night, then I cannot lose. So have to assume he visited someone else. Have to assume he is healthy. He won't visit Harb or Justy. He is going to visit someone he thinks is Town. Both Keirador and Malevolence are possibilities. He has thought a lot about EM being Patient Zero. But I bet he does his homework and considers that, if justy was Patient Zero, Keirador is infected. I'd say 60% chance he visits Malevolence.
Keirador - kind of a wildcard, as I don't know if he will consider himself healthy or infected. He may just default to sticking with his triad to keep things contained. That would be good (visit to Malevolence). I'd put the odds of him visiting Malevolence about 30%, and the odds of him visiting Smith about 5%.
Malevolence - Probably understands that he is healthy and needs to avoid the plague. I don't know if he'll be thinking that scum have the plague or not. I think there is a decent chance he visits me because he probably still townreads me. There is decent chance he visits Keirador because they are in the same triad. I tend to doubt that Malevolence will visit Smith. Possible, but I think it is more likely that Smith visits Malevolence than it is that Malevolence visits Smith.

Based on all this, visiting Smith is my best bet. If I visit Smith, the good guys win if either (a) Keirador or Malevolence decide to stay in triad, or (b) Malevolence chooses to visit me because I am his strongest townread, or (c) Harb still scumreads Malevolence and decides to visit there.

I choose to visit Smith.

Now let's have a plague party.
Edited 05-28-2016 08:54 PM
06:59 PM ET (US)
So that leaves Night 3:

Justy (infected) - cannot visit Keirador, and should know that he has the plague
Harb (infected) - cannot visit justy, and knows that he has plague
Conq (infected) - handsome
Smith (likely healthy) - cannot visit Conq
Keirador (infected) - can visit anyone, might think that he is healthy
Malevolence (healthy) - cannot visit Keirador
06:53 PM ET (US)
Hmmmm...who to infect?

Plague Timeline

Night 1: Justy infected Harb

EM -> Harb
justy -> Harb
Harb -> EM

mhsmith -> Yog
Conq -> Yog
Yog -> mhsmith

shadowfriend -> Mal
Keir -> Mal
Mal -> shadow

Night 2: Justy infected Keirador

justy -> Keirador
Harb -> justy

mhsmith -> Conq (probably)
Conq -> justy
Yog -> Conq

shadowfriend -> justy
Keir -> Shadowfriend
Mal -> Keirador
06:38 PM ET (US)
The sun submerges ‘neath the bend; he peers on with face sallow,
The final rays of lightness fled, and gone with them his Shadow.
He feels a tremble deep within, to foil the steel without.
Once a barren desert, his heart now teams with seeds of doubt.

Death is not a stranger, nor screams, nor blood, nor gore,
But lives that he extinguished, were but battles in a war,
Tonight his friend is ashes; and his plans are up in smoke,
The dormant fire within his soul, can feel a gentle stoke.

A headache overcomes him, is it plague, or nerves, or booze?
His life is but a bomb now; he knows not how long the fuse.
He reaches resolution, as he fights away the pain,
He may have lost his Shadow, but she will not die in vain.

His mind races to the task ahead, one night, and then one day,
One more vote he’s yet to cast, one visit yet to pay.
The question now is simple, but the answer’s beyond vague.
Which Aristocrats are healthy, and which ones now have the plague?

Harb will die come morning, and justy was first sick.
Keirador is likely next, to see life snuff its wick.
Two choices left, to give his fate, and make him man or myth.
Should he see Malevolence, or should he visit Smith?
Edited 05-28-2016 06:39 PM
Condude1Person was signed in when posted
02:40 PM ET (US)
Shadowfriend1 has been lynched, El Conquistador, you're all on your own!
12:32 PM ET (US)
Don't vote Justy. I can spin that as you and Justy wanting you to die because Justy is infected and can spread plague. Make clear in the thread that you are leaving and won't be here for EOD.
12:31 PM ET (US)
Where is your vote?
12:30 PM ET (US)
Oh, and bus me if need be.
12:28 PM ET (US)
I hate that I can't be here for this EOD because it might come down to a self preservation vote.
If I die, we won't get the clean sweep but you can take it home.
Good luck.
11:57 AM ET (US)
I have to go in half an hour and I won't be back before EOD (day two of heptathlon). Very unfortunate it seems. Looks like it might be time to deploy the SF/Mal team killer.
What about Keirador? I have time for that.
09:48 AM ET (US)
Where is your vote right now? I think you should make a case for someone other than Justy. I'll make a case for Justy in a bit. You move over to his wagon because it is the only alternate.
01:32 AM ET (US)
Keirador might go after me because I'm earnestly pissed off with him, depending on how objective his is. Which is okay. It's not like you're dying ever. Besides, there's nothing better than a bit of drama to distract from the real issues.
11:53 PM ET (US)
I enjoyed: "...but because it's lowering town morale."

I can make that point if need be re Mal/SF. But I doubt you and Mal will catch on as a duo. There is a decent chance you will be one of the wagons tomorrow. I think I'll stay out of it and push some wagon other than yours in the morning. Votes feel pretty fluid right now, and I think we are in a good place to swing it whichever way we want. I don't care much if our votes look shifty in the end. If we get another mislynch, that's checkmate.

I'm not sure what Keirador's going to do yet. He has pretty strong power to influence the lynch at this point.
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