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GOG Mafia #52: The mind of THE MANY Mk2

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49
LifthrasilPerson was signed in when posted
11-08-2017
10:41 AM ET (US)
Allright. Adalia converts ZFR, noted.

And this thread is closed for now. Dawn is coming.
48
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-08-2017
10:29 AM ET (US)
Convert ZFR

Sorry you're not feeling great Hyper, hope you're better soon.
47
LifthrasilPerson was signed in when posted
11-08-2017
10:21 AM ET (US)
One of you needs to bold the night-action, to make it final.

Get better soon, HSL!
46
The Sick Convert
11-08-2017
10:00 AM ET (US)
Sorry, had a bad night, and not doing good today.

Yes, ZFR is the target; fingers crossed it won't blow into our face.
45
LifthrasilPerson was signed in when posted
11-08-2017
08:29 AM ET (US)
The Night is slowly drawing to a close. (European evening, to be precise) So please finalize your decision as soon as The Sick Convert shows up, so that the game can continue.
44
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-08-2017
04:09 AM ET (US)
Ok, so are we agreed on converting ZFR then?
43
The Sick Convert
11-07-2017
08:00 PM ET (US)
Took a look before going to bed, and see you replied.

I suppose it does, but how would we know if they start suspecting a townie?
If you are the D4 lynch, they'll probably want to do it as quickly as possible to keep the Masons hidden; I'm inclined to think their plan from the start was to never ever claim (remember what Sage103082 said back in D1?). Plus, check the game thread - even when things were dragging out, do you see either of them give away who else they might be suspecting? So long as they can talk to each other out of the game thread, they won't say anything in it, so while it does depend to a degree what happens Tomorrow, I wouldn't count on being able to use either of the two to our benefit.

>>> and you play along as best you can without being obvious
I can't really do that, not after the way I've played all game. I'm the townie that's been playing quite a bit scummy since D1 to dodge a conversion (which was true for D1), and have been successful a tad too much; I managed to avoid being converted, but got the Masons lusting for my blood since D1 (hence, the short-sighted comment to gogtrial34987).
Since I claim to still be town, I have no choice but to consider the worst case scenario for town after Krypsyn's move. And since I'm town, everyone but me could have been converted by you, so equal amounts of FoS for everyone as your possible N1 or/and N3 converts, trentonlf included since he claimed yesterday to have misled everyone to believe he's a Mason.

>>> It would involve him changing his read on you
Not necessarily. The town play is to suspect everyone else on D4 (that probably means he has to leave out trentonlf, but that's not really a problem), and in his case, perhaps it's better that he won't know who else is on the Mutant team; key is to appear his so far town-self, so hopefully he can pull it off naturally. He can still vote you, since you're a claimed scum (and he was so inclined from before), and he can continue to suspect me.
With a little luck, the Day will end soon enough, and during N4 he can read our QT, and we can talk things through. And assuming I'm going to be the D5 lynch, he shouldn't have a problem to go along with it, while pointing a couple of FoS in the direction of flubbucket and Bookwyrm627 for the case the game doesn't end D5. If for any reason he becomes the prime suspect, I'm going to bus him, as I've already expressed some suspicion of him.
The tricky part will be to pick the right ally between them to achieve the mis-lynch on D6 without giving away that he's the last Mutant.

I can't see things going much differently than this. You should still attempt to sell it as you said, helps with "not clearing up the game state"; isn't this what the Masons want anyway?

Off to bed now.
42
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-07-2017
06:46 PM ET (US)
I think that makes sense. You're probably right about gogtrial, if they are the mason then they're probably not too likely to be swayed that easily.

Who to kill tomorrow night also depends on what happens I suppose, if either trent or gogtrial starts suspecting a townie then we should leave them alive to hopefully pursue the mislynch.

I'd be happy to convert ZFR, I think that makes the most sense. It would involve him changing his read on you, but if I sell it as being almost a fresh game in the morning with only one scum and you play along as best you can without being obvious then he should hopefully play along too.
41
The Sick Convert
11-07-2017
06:07 PM ET (US)
I wasn't clear, sorry - it's my suggestion as to how to go about it in the case town brings up the subject in a bit of pressing/insisting manner.

Perhaps I am, but given how they've been pushing my lynch all game, I doubt they'll leave me for last, and if they do, it'll likely be the same as with Bookwyrm627. And trentonlf may well be dead D5, but until then he keeps talking in the 24/7 Mason QT, and gogtrial34987 already sounds like a trentonlf #2.

I had to look up what game you were referring to (and to think I, kind of, was assistant mod in it). If I'm not terribly mistaken, that was gogtrial34987's first game, and they got manipulated by Nachomamma8. Since then, gogtrial34987 has played a few more games with us, and with just about everyone still alive. Plus, if they're the 3rd Mason, then it's quite unlikely they'll let anyone move them from the opinion formed in that QT. So, not easiest to manipulate at all, imo.

Killing flubbucket seems to make the least sense, though he's damn smart, and if he devotes enough time (remember, he's off work) he may well make the right choice at MYLO. On the flip side, he could be the best mis-lynch candidate - both ZFR and Bookwyrm627 weren't averse to offing him until very recently, so our convert could perhaps convince the townie he's the one that got converted Tonight, if not N1. But to make this play, we need gogtrial34987's flip first, perhaps even more than trentonlf's?

Instinctively, I'd go for a gogtrial34987 N5 kill, perhaps even N4, and a ZFR conversion.

Let me chew on it for a while, and I'll check back in here tomorrow.
40
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-07-2017
04:27 PM ET (US)
I wasn't planning to actually claim to convert anyone, that would be too obvious (though ripe for WIFOM), more like accidentally (but not really) revealing who it might have been. If I back track and try to cover it up it might convince them. But it might also be seen through and clear someone (which is why I'd probably go with flub if I were to try it, as clearing him is the least harmful to us).

I think you over estimate how likely town are to vote you again.. assuming they do kill me first trent will be dead before it comes down to you. If we convert ZFR then Bookwyrm doesn't suspect you are scum (as far as I remember) and all we need to do is get them to lynch flub...

I think we might want to leave gogtrial and one of the possible converties for the last day, I feel they might be the easiest to manipulate (wasn't it them that let someone talk them into voting trent and handing scum victory in one game? Or am I misremembering?).
Though I suppose killing all the masons so literally anyone could be scum might make more sense.

I'm thinking ZFR might be the best pick, as Bookwyrm is already kind of on side...
39
The Sick Convert
11-07-2017
03:23 PM ET (US)
>>> I honestly can't decide...

*rattles dice*

Eh? Nah, let's not yet.

>>> </i>whoever we haven't converted was my night one convert</i>
Not sure that's a good idea. As town, I'd be very suspicious of you being forthcoming and dishing out a name, more so since you said you'd help out the Cyborgs if on the losing end, and would think that's more likely the person you didn't convert any Nifht.
If I were you, I'd be like: What did we do N1? Let me think... Oh right, we faked a conversion (and the rest of your argument). Or didn't we? Did we attempted a conversion? Hmm... well, if we did, it succeeded. Or it failed... Sorry, can't help you out there, memory's fuzzy, you lot have to figure it out for yourselves". Something like that.

>>> Are we not already at MYLO?
We are, but only if town takes a chance with the D4 lynch. Which I don't expect them to - they're more likely to leave it till the pool of players is down to the minimum (2v1), for two reasons:
1. They have two certain (from their PoV) scum lynches (you and me) for the next two Days.
2. Depending on who's left by D6, the odds for them to get the last scum look better (from their PoV).

They don't need to take a chance, but they may well try to fish out who the convert(s) is/are by putting some pressure on them before they lynch you (or me). That's why you should stay out of any voting, except, as you said, for a Mason.

Yeah, there's a tiny risk with flubbucket, but gogtrial34987's play smelled like a Mason totally in tune with trentonlf - that "So, masons, you're doing well: stay townie! And townies, you're doing well: stay potentially masony!" felt quite forced/staged/over the top. I'm more concerned he may not be up to fighting the MYLO battle as the last standing Mutant.
You're probably right it's not worth taking the risk. But isn't that what town would expect us to do? Got the safe route?

The WIFOM with Bookwyrm627 might help, but two things here:
1. If town feels they're taking a chance at MYLO, I think they're more likely to risk losing by lynching Bookwyrm627 than any other*.
2. How successful Bookwyrm627 is, depends on how the not-converted townies play.

* It just occurred to me that we haven't factored in so far something that may help us in the process of deciding who to convert. And that's who we kill at Night. Because that's a factor for who's going to be in that 2v1 scenario.

So, we go for trentonlf N4. So, we go into D5 with flubbucket, Bookwyrm627, ZFR, and gogtrial34987. Who do we kill N5?
38
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-07-2017
01:51 PM ET (US)
If they really don't believe that I didn't convert someone I'll probably try and make a slip out of it and say whoever we haven't converted was my night one convert, but if anyone presses I plan to say because we No Lynched D1 me and Hunter felt it was worth the risk to not take any action and fake a conversion to make town nervous.

Oh I know trent was fishing, which was why I didn't give him any thing.

Why? Any townie should have been expected to vote or hammer him.

That's a good point I suppose. But I definitely don't intend to vote for anyone other than the masons (if they claim), I'm scum so I don't have anything to hide. But while I agree it might be a better play for town to leave me alive, I'm not sure that's what they will do.

Are we not already at MYLO? Or LYLO even? 3 v 4 once we convert so if they hit the wrong person tomorrow we win, if they no lynch we kill someone 3 v 3 and they can no longer lynch us.

My preference would probably be flub, as he is in the potential mason pool.
But he may not be able to participate much and there is a small chance he is a mason and I would die instead, meaning we would definitely lose.

I kind of agree about Bookwyrm. He is a good player, but I'm not sure whether he could deflect suspicion enough. But that being said the WIFOM of would scum convert the most suspicious player (second maybe after you I suppose) instead of someone taking less heat might help...

You're probably right, unless town buys there is only one scum left and plays it as if it's a new game (I intend to claim that I rolled a dice to pick who to convert) then it's likely the convert who will be the last one standing. But I could see either of the three candidates being able to win from there.

I honestly can't decide...
Edited 11-07-2017 01:51 PM
37
The Sick Convert
11-07-2017
08:37 AM ET (US)
Yeah, I was going for ZFR, but couldn't do it without pointing a finger into Krypsyn's direction, especially when he gave me the opportunity to do so quite naturally.

>>>I don't plan on outing the fact there was already one convert out there
Of course you don't, but you don't need to either - after the way Krypsyn outed himself and you, they're already taking into account the worst case scenario for them. Which means they now operate under these conditions:
- N1: Mutant successfully converted, Cyborgs NK-ed Mutant.
- N2: Mutant NK-ed Mason, Cyborgs failed conversion.

Besides, do you really think that there was nothing behind trentonlf's question of if you're a solo Mutant? I think he was fishing.

And hammering Krypsyn may well have sealed it for town that I'm your buddy.

One other reason I think that you don't necessarily have to be the D4 lynch, at least not immediately, is this - if you're the lynch, everybody can vote you because you're a claimed scum. But if they go for me, or someone they suspect you'd have converted N3, they could use it to gauge your, and your convert(s) reaction, and figure out who the convert(s) is/are.
The downside for town here is that if they go for someone before you and me, they risk a mis-lynch, and they should be aware that they can't afford it.
Since you are a claimed original Mutant, the best thing to do is to refuse to vote for anyone upfront, stating that you're on to town, and won't give away who else may be on the Mutant team. You could also say that Krypsyn's play gave town enough of an advantage as it is. You get the idea; I'm sure you'll pull this off just fine.

So yes, we need to get to MYLO, and I've been thinking:

D4: Lynch you - we can both vote you, new convert remains hidden.
N4: NK Mason, probably trentonlf.
D5: Lynch me (most likely case) - new convert votes me => gets to hide another Day; helps if they're someone willing to lynch me from before.
N5: NK Town.
D6: MYLO - which sort of new convert would help best?

1. Someone that was more or less town-read through the whole game - ZFR, flubbucket.
2. Someone that was scum-reading me and was willing to lynch me - again, ZFR, flubbucket.

So, the question is, do we go for the straightforward option (ZFR,flubucket), or the WIFOM one (Bookwyrm627)?

As much as I am confident in Bookwyrm627's skills, he's been scum-read so much the whole game that I'm not sure we'd win the MYLO battle.
Converting ZFR allows him to stick to his town-play for the next 2 Days, whether you and I get lynched in this or reverse order. And perhaps giving him a new challenge may get him out of his pissy mood?
flubbucket would do nicely too, as there's not much on record from him, and has voted both you and me before. I'm just not sure if he's up to it with his condition and all.

You say I'm likely going to be the one to deal with the convert, but it looks like it's going to come down to the convert having to win the MYLO battle on their own. So, thoughts?
Edited 11-07-2017 09:20 AM
36
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-07-2017
02:05 AM ET (US)
Don't worry, I never planned to out you ;)
This is actually the scenario I was working on in a way, though I would have preferred to lynch town I was expecting the only way to save you was to really push on scum.
I was expecting you would be tomorrow's lynch not me, but the outcome is not all that different.

Well the way I see it it will be three Vs four tomorrow.
They will lynch me (I see what you're saying, but I don't believe they'll leave a claimed scum alive) and you will NK trent.
That leaves 3 v 2 and town have to lynch you and the convert correctly to win.
So all you need to do is mislynch whoever we don't convert. Even if they get one of you it'll be MYLO till the end.
It's slim, but there is still a chance of winning.

I'm not sure, I could see ZFR being happier to be on the winning side ;)

But you are most likely going to be the one to deal with it so I'll convert whoever you'd prefer. I don't plan on outing the fact there was already one convert out there so once I'm dead it's basically a fresh game state and nothing that's happened counts, as far as town knows anyway.
35
The Sick Convert
11-06-2017
08:47 PM ET (US)
Well, indeed.

When dedoporno turned up dead, I was amused by the thought he'd attempted to convert you - great job, buddy, you've fooled a whole bunch of people this game. When Krypsyn voted you, I was sure that was what happened last Night, and was trying to get the rival scum with the conversion shot lynched; the way he replied when I asked him sealed it for me. I was also rather sure he had me as your convert, and was smiling to myself during our exchanges before he outed himself and you. If I'm right about this part, then at least he didn't out me as well.

Damn his impatience, and bitterness; I wasn't going to push too hard on him Today, as we needed him to convert Tonight to have a decent chance at winning, and I thought he got it, and was playing along.

>>> I didn't really see any point in arguing once Krypsyn claimed.
The reason I made that "I'm genuinely confused, are we still playing or not?" post is because I saw you were about to give the game away, but also saw that town had no intention to let it end, and then we'd be really screwed if they opted to lynch you instead of Krypsyn; I took trentonlf's posts as fishing.


>>>I'm not sure I buy that trent wasn't a mason at all
I'm pretty sure he was lying in his post #1129, because of his post #1105; he knows scum have to go for a conversion, more so after the outing, and was trying to attract it so it fails. Absolutely no attempt on him.
After seeing gogtrial34987's play, I think it's reasonably safe to assume that mchack, trentonlf, and gogtrial34987 are the Masons.

>>>once they lynch me
Yeah well, I wouldn't be all that sure you're the next in line. Think about it, even with a successful conversion, town still controls the lynch D4, so can lynch whoever they want. With the conversion shots used up, does it matter in which order they lynch the Mutants?

>>>It's really a choice between ZFR and Bookwyrm I think.
It looks like it is. Bookwyrm627 seems the safest choice; in spite mchack's claims about Oscar-worthy fights, I'm having a hard time seeing Bookwyrm627 as an only too well hidden Mason; he got the man almost lynched D2. If he were the 3rd Mason, and your vote on him had counted Yesterday, how would they have saved him, after screaming their lungs out not to out the Masons, and that he's scum?

The problem with Bookwyrm627 is that both him and me are trentonlf's favourite lynch candidates, so we're quite screwed if you're lynched Tomorrow. On the plus side, he's yet to scum-read me.
ZFR has been on our case for most of the game, so how well would he manage with having to change his reads all of a sudden? Because with Krypsyn out of the picture, we can't really afford bussings. Plus, he seems quite p'od, and converting him will probably only make that feeling worse, so that doesn't help either.

Looking at the numbers I had run, town has better chances to control the lynch from now on, hence we're always going to be a step behind. Unless we can somehow achieve a mis-lynch. Which points to converting the not obvious choice, ZFR or flubbucket, and hope for the best.

I have to think about it, and rerun the numbers. I gladly take any input you have.
Edited 11-06-2017 08:57 PM
34
adaliabooksPerson was signed in when posted
11-06-2017
07:32 PM ET (US)
Well.
That was unexpected. Although I did guess dedo tried to convert me so the Cyborg knew I was scum and I expected to get NK'D tonight.
Sorry to have dumped you in it a bit, I didn't really see any point in arguing once Krypsyn claimed. But at least they appear to have bought that I was solo so the fact there will be two of you should come as a surprise.
And it's basically a clean slate once they lynch me, so hopefully that gives you a fighting chance.

Who would you like me to convert? It's really a choice between ZFR and Bookwyrm I think. I'm not sure I buy that trent wasn't a mason at all, but if you'd like me to risk a convert on him or one of the other possible masons I'm happy to.
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