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Meta Mafia - Scum Chat

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70
jimbobmacdoodlePerson was signed in when posted
06-30-2018
05:05 AM ET (US)
By the way, I'm not likely to be online after another 90 minutes from now until the end of night. I might get a few minutes an hour or so before deadline, but that'll be it. Do we need to discuss any strategy points from now on? In terms of good times for quick hammer, I'm available most of tomorrow afternoon/evening, then at work during the day the remainder of the week. I may be out some evenings, so best times are late evening (after 10pm) or on my commutes (around 9am or 5.30pm).
69
jimbobmacdoodlePerson was signed in when posted
06-30-2018
05:02 AM ET (US)
Yeah, don't worry. Mpolo is my scummiest read. He's the obvious call, based on my D4 post.
68
LaserGuy
06-30-2018
01:26 AM ET (US)
Try to be as natural as possible with your progression. If you were pushing mpolo before it's okay to continue that. Just don't ignore me... We are both basically confirmed scum from your point of view. Treat us that way. You need to convince wam and Madge of that. Scum is trying to set you up for the fall and you're trying to avoid losing the game for Town.

I will probably go hard after you today and ignore mpolo entirely.

I think for wam or Madge, wait and see which way they are leaning. My gut is wam is better to keep alive since Madge will probably just sheep the others.
67
jimbobmacdoodle
06-29-2018
05:16 PM ET (US)
Right, looking quickly through the D4 posts to get a feel for who is more dangerous. Things to note:

wam - Recommends not using his reads (so disincentive for Madge to sheep dead!wam). PoE leads to moody and mpolo, with one of us two.

BoomFrog - expects wam to be dead (I think the whole of town do). Has you scummier than me scummier than mpolo.

Madge - wary of BoomFrog and not going to blindly sheep him (implying whilst alive), but will be sheeping the dead. Note: plytho had mpolo as scummier than you or I in his last reads list.

I honestly don't think we'll ever get rid of any of these three via lynch (barring town not getting themself organised to vote in a block, something which I doubt will happen, but has a higher chance if Madge is alive), so clearly we need to get mpolo lynched, and we might as well treat these three as confirmed town. That means that there's no specific benefit to killing wam. I'm concerned that killing BoomFrog will mean Madge follows his read, but on the other hand, she might be more willing to follow confirmed-town!wam, since he's still alive. The big risk is if wam and Madge both decide that BoomFrog dying must mean he's on to something. I'm hoping that the WIFOM from that will negate this and they'll continue with their current thinking.

Conclusion: I'll kill BoomFrog and for no good reason rolecop wam.

I'm going to prep a buddy analysis post now, so that I can show how mpolo is linked to you (but also posting. I'm going to continue pushing for mpolo lynch, but I'll make it clear that you are my preferred second candidate. It's entirely predictable how scum!me would behave though, so...? Should I bus you hard today, and try to gather town credit for D6 for one of us in case the other gets lynched? I'm thinking that's too big a change from yesterday, but if you can pull it off on me, I'm all for it.

Any thoughts on N5, since if we get that far, only one of us will be alive? Kill wam or kill Madge? Killing wam seems like the obvious choice to me, but...?
66
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-29-2018
01:17 PM ET (US)
Leaning toward BoomFrog for the kill. I don't think he is going to change his mind on either of us. I don't have as good of sense of where wam/Madge are at.

Of course, killing BoomFrog will point suspicion at us, but it's WIFOM because why would we want to cast suspicion on ourselves? :P
65
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-29-2018
06:01 AM ET (US)
It's funny, I have in my notes from earlier in the game that I think this setup is quite scumsided, particularly this roll of Matrix14... 10v3 isn't super common here on xkcd forums, but it's fairly standard over at mafiascum and unless Town has some good help with PRs, scum wins more often than not by the numbers.

I think we probably would have been okay if I had stuck with lynching moody D3 (or at least letting someone else take the fall for it). We would have been much better positioned having been early on the scum train and could probably have flipped Mark and mpolo or something. Having an extra night may have let us kill off Madge or wam before reaching LYLO and having everything in the open as well. I still don't really understand how BoomFrog ended up getting confirmed either, but they believe it, I guess.

I was trying to think of what sort of WIFOM-equity we can get out of our kill at this point. I'm not sure what the best solution is, or if there is a solution that can lead to a win in any way at this point. Shooting BoomFrog may be our best bet, but it's a long shot whomever we pick. I'll think about it. The best case scenario is probably to get to you/Madge/mpolo in 3p LYLO, I imagine, and let Madge choose, although that feels a bit unsportsmanlike to me since it'd be kind of taking advantage of the fact that she's away and isn't following all that closely (and I imagine she'd just sheep wam/Boom if it came to that).

We may be better of doing No Lynch instead of another wagon since No Lynch wins the tie, if my reading of that is correct. Would need to check with the mod since that may occur if and only if all players are voting and its tied.
64
jimbobmacdoodlePerson was signed in when posted
06-29-2018
04:27 AM ET (US)
I think with hammer that means we can chat, even though mod hadn't posted yet when I started writing this.

Getting the tracker was a massive bonus and with the way the day went, I feel like we'd have been stuffed otherwise, except maybe if Madge had been the tracker.

Losing moody was entirely predictable, if a little sad that I didn't keep my perfect streak going.

What I wasn't expecting was just how much heat the two of us would get by PoE. I honestly don't understand why mpolo has confirm-towned BoomFrog, and I think that's something that we can really press tomorrow.

I'm going to moan a bit about how the setup feels a little town favoured. I think nearly every game I've played either had multiple killing roles/factions, a recruiting faction, and/or required only 3 mislynched. Getting 4 seems like it's a real challenge. The chances of us getting rid of 2 PRs by LYLO isn't that great, which means that there are very few mislynch opportunities available when that comes around. Madge getting all but confirmed because the wiki page had mistakes is frustrating too. And I don't think the fruit vendor is supposed to be able to name fruit types, based on my reading of the role PM. It's supposed to be a named townie role, not really anything more from my reading.

Anyway, sorry to you, bessie and Diemo, I just needed to get that out of my system.

Mpolo is clearly our best bet, and I will be pushing him almost exclusively D5. I assume we want to kill wam? Or do we? I'm actually wondering whether BoomFrog might be a better shout. It would create some delicious wine (would scum kill a townie who has guessed the team correctly?), but it would reduce the number of possible teams.

Not that it matters but I'll rolecop the other one. I won't bother breadcrumbing, unless something weird is the case, in which case assume the same system as before.

By the way, it occurred to me that one possible late-day strategy is if any townies haven't voted, we could try to force a coin-flip or minority lynch, by both piling onto a different wagon late on. I don't think this will actually work, but if things are getting desperate?

Code the same as yesterday for readiness to quick hammer? We can do it like this:

Jimbob: LaserGuy (random question)??
LaserGuy: Random answer!
Jimbob: Vote
LaserGuy: Vote

That way, we've got a double acknowledgment.
63
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
06:43 PM ET (US)
Happy for night to end too.
62
jimbobmacdoodlePerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
06:36 PM ET (US)
Oh, one more thing, since I want to be the hammerer, if the two of you start off the quick-hammer code sequence, and I'm third, I'll post as if I were second to confirm I'm ready (with an exclamation mark) and one of you should vote.

I'll try to turn on email notifications for quote pings too, so that I can respond quickly.
61
jimbobmacdoodlePerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
06:26 PM ET (US)
I've submitted the mpolo rolecop (again...).

I'm happy for night to end whenever now, if you guys are.
60
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
12:38 PM ET (US)
I think that makes sense. I'm good with mpolo then.
59
jimbobmacdoodle
06-21-2018
12:36 PM ET (US)
Any more thoughts on who I should cop? Should I go with someone we want to otherwise push the lynch on, or someone we're more likely to kill? I'm thinking a lynchable, because we wouldn't kill them unless we know they are a PR.

Currently thinking mpolo (tracker slip) or Madge/BoomFrog (towniest remaining townies).
58
moody7277Person was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
12:25 PM ET (US)
Okay with the code.
57
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
12:20 PM ET (US)
That's fine with me.
56
jimbobmacdoodle
06-21-2018
10:58 AM ET (US)
How about something as simple as a double question mark in the question? The response should use an exclamation mark to indicate acceptance and readiness, or a full stop otherwise.

E.g.
jimbob: @LaserGuy, why did you do that??
LaserGuy: I thought it was the right thing to do!
moody: Vote wam.

This could be in any order. I'd even go so far as to say that if moody were to see the question first, he could respond in the same way. E.g.

jimbob: @LaserGuy, why did you do that??
moody: I want to know the answer too!
LaserGuy: vote wam.

This would be a non-acceptance:

jimbob: @LaserGuy, why did you do that??
moody: I want to know the answer too.
LaserGuy: Because it was the right thing to do.
55
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
06-21-2018
10:14 AM ET (US)
I've put in the kill. I like the idea of a signal, but I can't think of what we should use.
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