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NSM XIX observers

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04:32 PM ET (US)
I hate you Shapelog..
04:11 PM ET (US)
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
03:58 PM ET (US)
/m148 Indeed.
ArtanisPerson was signed in when posted
03:53 PM ET (US)
MA is like 10000% town here for attempting to orchestrate a way for him to lose if he were mafia when everyone's content to lynch PMT.
09:18 AM ET (US)
it's shapelog. this EoD wallowing in sorrow from him is over the top. if he doesn't get NK'd i'd bet a fair amount on it
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
09:14 AM ET (US)
Do note that I may be intentionally messing with you - that's one of the privileges of being a host ;)
09:03 AM ET (US)
But if I was to read into what people with TMI are saying, it would be indicative of PMT being town.

Including LoneMeow's recent comments, but especially Tumbles: "For the record, Trfel, you were the most terrifying person to me in this game. Did a good job until after my lynch."

After Tumble was lynched, Trfel townread MA and Shapelog while scumreading PMT.

If all those three are spot on, I don't think Tumble would be saying he stopped doing a good job.
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
08:52 AM ET (US)
I guess if they nolynch and Shapelog is still alive it looks wierd, because he's the most towny of the 3 potential scum (imo).

Now this is a good observation.

Although, if I was the scum I'd probably consider shooting the veteran to force the MYLO to continue for another day, depending on which way townies are swinging during the night.
08:42 AM ET (US)
MA has been towny but relatively ineffective (hasn't voted to lynch scum except for d1). I can see why mafia would not consider him a threat over the lynched players.

Not killing PMT makes sense because people have been suspicious of her for a long time.

Shapelog seems like too much of a wildcard to kill. And he didn't start looking very towny until tumble flipped, at which point Trfel was still the better lynch since he looked even more towny.

I guess if they nolynch and Shapelog is still alive it looks wierd, because he's the most towny of the 3 potential scum (imo).
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
08:16 AM ET (US)
No, the question is "why is X alive over some of the others who have been NKd" for every player still alive. It doesn't always reveal anything useful, but generally is something to consider in late game situations.
08:11 AM ET (US)
I'm just saying if shes scum that might be the explanation for her posting patterns.

My reasons for scumreading her in the first place are different, and I'm not all that certain about her being mafia because I don't have perfect information.

Is the question you're referring to why he said "scum" instead of "shapelog"?
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
06:24 AM ET (US)
I'm just here thinking if PMT is town, scum is incredibly lucky there is such a scummy player when there is only 4 people left.

Unsurprisingly all the towny players tend to get NKd before MYLO/LYLO so generally you have fairly scummy players left at that point, unless townies have managed to be super good about looking towny.

There's also a fairly interesting question that hasn't been asked yet related to the above.
LoneMeowPerson was signed in when posted
06:12 AM ET (US)
/m138 Irrespective of her alignment, I think that reasoning sounds very much like confirmation bias: "She's scum, so she might be posting less because ..."

Unless you know from past experience that someone tends to post less as scum posting volume alone is relatively unsafe reason to call anyone scum.

Speculating that someone is posting less because of what may or may not be happening in scum QT is completely pointless - how do you know she's just not busy IRL which would make the low post volume quite non-alignment-indicative?

Now if she was obviously around (reacting quickly whenever called out etc) but still not posting voluntarily then I'd call it suspicious.
05:33 AM ET (US)
I also think PMT is the last remaining scum. Her lack of posts might be explained by the fact that the two other scum(newbies) were doing poorly, so she had to lead scum + help the newbs with their play in the QT.
scassedenPerson was signed in when posted
11:27 PM ET (US)
everything mex is saying today makes me want to kill him

e: like not irl kill him lol. i mean that it's really suspicious and looks like an anxious mafia player at mylo who doesn't know how to keep looking townie
Edited 02-08-2016 11:27 PM
scassedenPerson was signed in when posted
08:16 PM ET (US)
just make sure your posts have a point to them.

sidebar story/lesson -- my play style in mafia changed drastically once I started playing competitive Magic. specifically, an important concept to succeed in competitive Magic is the notion that you should have a plan to win the game, and that every action you take should be in line with that plan.

it sounds obvious, but it's amazing how hard it really is to see clearly how every action taken and decision made in Magic advances your plan for victory.

mafia is much the same. every post you make should be advancing your win condition, period.
(i mean, ok. you can have a joke post here and there. but that has to be very minimized)
you should have a clear line of thought with all your questions.
that line of thought should logically connect to finding mafia.
even when you're just sitting down to reread or catch up you should be thinking about this! how does rereading a specific passage advance your win condition? what are you expecting to find, and what does a contrary discovery imply about the game? think scientific method here, have a hypothesis going into any reread and compare against what you actually found
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