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Secret Hitler Obs QT

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30
Adam
11-14-2018
07:19 AM ET (US)
At this point, I think people are just assuming that if the mission passed, everyone told the truth, a rather naive way to approach this when you can be certain that at least one fascist has been on a mission.

Although I may be way off base.
Edited 11-14-2018 06:38 PM
29
Acrofales
11-14-2018
07:03 AM ET (US)
I find it a bit surprising that absolutely nobody has brought up the possibility that one of the presidents lied.
28
Adam
11-14-2018
04:28 AM ET (US)
I think the obs thread is more active than the actual game at this point... and theres only 2 of us in here.
27
Adam
11-13-2018
09:52 PM ET (US)
I'm not sure the players are seeing Rels the same way we are

I think there's more trust around Conversion and Grack than Rels, which is odd since they've all been on successful missions and each has had patchy levels of activity.
26
Acrofales
11-13-2018
09:10 AM ET (US)
I guess if krogan is Hitler he wouldn't necessarily be scum with Rayn. That's a possibility. But if krogan is just a run-of-the-mill fascist I don't see him picking a town running mate. It's too good an opportunity to signal scum to Hitler.

But pretty sure if Grack+Rayn+Rels are town, then scum don't have a chance to win. I mean, mathematically they still do, but town would have to completely herpaderp to give it away, even if they get a bad spell of RNG.
25
AMG
11-13-2018
08:53 AM ET (US)
Forum ate my post >:(

I don't think Rayn is scum. No way he let's his scum team fall to a 4-0 disadvantage when he was on 2 of those missions. I don't see him shying away from dragging the thread into the mud by claiming happykrogan sent him FF and happy disputing it. Nor do I think he would have any reservations doing the same to conversion.

I don't think it's kita/prplhz/byj either.

Happy is a possibility. Passed a L policy early to gain town cred and hasn't been able to capitalise since.

From the scum perspective, the two fascists are mostly useless at this point. They're not going to be able to push through 6 unanswered fascist policies. Their win condition is RNG the deck out and get Hitler elected chancellor after 3 fascist policies go through.

Now that assumes Hitler is in a place to even get elected. If Hitler is within byj/prplhz/kita, then the fascists are absolutely terminal
Edited 11-13-2018 08:58 AM
24
Acrofales
11-13-2018
07:25 AM ET (US)
Lemme do some math:

There has been no argument about the two cards passed to the chancellor, nor has the chancellor ever passed a fascist policy from an LF situation, so this makes me think that either the chancellors have been town, or have been very blending town. The presidents have a higher chance of being scum, and simply lying about the discarded card. Every president so far has said to discard an F card:

Happykrogan LFF
Grack LLF
Conversion LFF
Rels LFF

Of these, I am inclined to believe Grack and Rels for now. Conversion *could* be scum, and I still don't see anything townie about krogan. So lets math it out for each of them lying (note, they can't *both* be lying, because there are only 6 L cards in the deck, so at MOST one of them is lying):

Both truth:
LFF: 48.5%
LLF: 25%
LFF: 51%
LFF: 53.5%
Total: 3.3%

Krogan lying, and actually getting LLF:
LLF has: 24% chance, and subsequent draws are:
LLF:16%
LFF: 43%
LFF: 37.5%
Total for this sequence: 0.6%

Conversion lying, and actually getting LLF:
LFF: 48.5%
LLF: 25%
LLF: 14.5%
LFF: 37.5%
Total for this sequence: 0.7%

In other words, with the information we have now, the sequence for all of them having spoken the truth is ~5x more likely than that either krogan or conversion is lying. I guess that's not really evidence yet, but it's worth weighing in.

So if we assume all the presidents have been town, based on this statistic, that means we need to search for scum amongst:

Rayn, prplhz, byj and kita. Of these, rayn has passed 2! Loyalist policies, which means he can only really be scum if he is Hitler, otherwise passing an F policy and going head to head with conversion seems worthwhile. Is it really the most obvious of obvious scumteams, made up of byj, prplhz and kita? Seems like some terrible play, and byj doesn't feel like scum. So my gut is *still* going with Rayn is scum. Krogan could be scum and not lying. Or he could be lying and we just got a fairly long odds sequence.

Anyway, if rayn is scum, and town is trusting him, they might be in trouble. The way a scum rayn's plan plays out: next card flips F. Grack is president and picks Rayn chancellor. Grack draws FFF. My bet is they skip Kitaman and prplhz. Conversion is the next president, probably with Rels chancellor. These are probably both town, with a 51% chance of drawing FFF. So there's a 49% chance town wins here, but there's also a 51% they trigger a special election, and now Grack is tainted with an FFF claim with a 25% likelihood (assuming town continues to believe the prior claims). Rayn *might* swing getting elected here, and win. Btw, Rayn doesn't know if Krogan was lying or not, he only knows it's likely krogan is scum for having chosen him, Hitler, as chancellor on the first pick. If rayn is indeed scum, the rest is a bit of a hail mary, because if everything so far has been the truth, they are in an awful position: there's a 20% chance they just lose outright on the next flip, and then a further 75% chance that Grack gets given LFF and passes him LF, after which he has to scumclaim to not lose.

And yes, I am fixated on rayn being scum, because it is pretty much the only interesting scenario that makes any sense to me. If scum is kita, prplhz, byj they are 100% dead.
23
Acrofales
11-13-2018
04:18 AM ET (US)
Hm. This may be harder than I thought.

(1) I'm fairly confident someone has lied about discarding an F when they actually discarded an L, so the chance isn't 80% that between the flip and Grack's turn they get a loyal policy; it's 0%. Rayn disregarding this feels really off to me. The plan to vote in byj/prplhz is much better.

(2) if I understand the mechanics, after reshuffling, the flipped cards aren't in the deck, meaning there are only 2 L cards in the deck, with 9 F cards (if town follows their current plan). The first government would therefore have a 51% chance of getting FFF. If they vote in prplhz/byj instead and then pass til Grack, they have a 54% chance. Not much worse odds, and would only be the second fascist policy instead of the 3rd.

So yeah, Rayn is dumb, or mb scum after all (he'd have to be Hitler). Rayn, krogan, Kita, MB? I haven't read the thread enough to see if that fits, and am also not planning to.
22
Adam
11-12-2018
07:06 AM ET (US)
Yeah, both fascist know each other, and who Hitler is. Hitler knows nothing except that there are 2 fascists out there.

Ive had moderate success reading prplhz in the past, and I cant recall a recent game where I was wrong on Rels either.

What I'm struggling with is that IF byj is town as i suspect, that means that at some point in this game, two fascists have been in office as president/chancellor. I'd say one of them is prplhz, but the other is much more hidden. I feel like it has to be between Krogan and Grack, both of whom have been part of passing liberal policies.
21
Acrofales
11-12-2018
06:58 AM ET (US)
Hm, one thing is unclear from the rules. The fascists both know Hitler. Do they know each other? They aren't allowed to communicate, but do they know who they are? Otherwise this game is even more rigged against mafia than I thought.
20
Acrofales
11-12-2018
06:46 AM ET (US)
At this point I don't think it matters that Grack looked a bit dodgy at the beginning (not that I actually read the thread): he has passed 2 liberal policies, one of those putting town at a 4-0 score and ensuring scum now needs to get 4 wins in a row. One is possibly a freeby (if the next team is given FFF or if the president is scum), but that still leaves 3 to go. A scum Grack would be mad to put his team in that position just for the town credit (of which he now does have a lot, but he'd better be very certain he can maneuver his scum friends into positions to from now until the end of the game sabotage every single policy). It defies reason. So he's town. If this somehow flips from 4-0 to 4-3, then he obviously needs another look.

I agree byj looks townier than prplhz. That said, prplhz always looks like scum regardless of his alignment :P As is, I'd elect byj/rayn for the off chance town just outright wins there, but would continue to consider byj offlimits for anything else. Then town wins after the deck is reshuffled (barring a 25% FFF bullshit draw) and grack/rels can be the ticket again.
Edited 11-12-2018 06:55 AM
19
Adam
11-12-2018
05:55 AM ET (US)
Rayn is town, has looked it for a majority of the game when I actually started reading more closely than just skimming.

I'm just not that sold on Gracks towniness. His behaviour early game looked far more like someone who was worried about how they were going to be perceived, as opposed to someone trying to solve the game.

I'm back to byj is town. His last post is just so... out of touch? I cant see a scum player that's staring down at a 6-0 score card saying they're moving rels back to the townie zone... like that only comes from a townie there. More likely scum behaviour at this point is complete surrender/absence/acceptance.
18
Acrofales
11-12-2018
04:12 AM ET (US)
K, Rayn is town. His plan to not get elected is 100% correct for town and 100% fucks mafia unless: Grack and rels are scum (mindfuck) or mafia has kp (or gets kp after 1 fascist policy is passed, or something).

Mafia really needs kp to be able to smash the Grack+Rels town circle.
17
AMG
11-12-2018
02:21 AM ET (US)
The only thing that makes this game make any sense to me is if one of the fascists has been townsiding hard this game, much too hard.
16
AMG
11-11-2018
11:18 PM ET (US)
Byj reads as town to me though. Which means two fascists have gone through and not sabotaged the outcome.


**And yet, reading through the votes, byj votes the same way as kita every time but once. On paper looks like the likely candidate for the 3rd fascist. Im conflicted.
Edited 11-11-2018 11:40 PM
15
AMG
11-11-2018
04:17 PM ET (US)
Well.. I don't think they can lose from here. 6 people have held office so far, with the only 2 not elected being byj and kita. I do wonder if the only time a fascist got in, he was handed L/L. If that's the case then they've had a really rough game
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