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LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
05:11 PM ET (US)
My guess would be that plytho would have to have thought heury's cop claim is complete fabrication... he might have some other weak power that allows him to target, but nothing so strong as a cop, and was presumably expecting his mason-buddy to bail him out. Though you never would have voted for heury if you were a confirmed mason with him, and plytho ought to have known that.

I don't know. That's the best I can come up with. I guess it could be something much more obscure (or it could be plytho is scum and has just been inconsistent with what he's claiming).
04:52 PM ET (US)
Okay, I can see your pov however you're ignoring crucial info:
- plytho would need to believe heury to be Mason + Cop which is ridiculously strong
- Masons will very rarely attack each other D1 like I attacked heury

But the most important thing you're not considering:
- heury actually voted for Zen D2 and claimed him to be in the scum-team, well before he claimed Cop.

plytho would need to disregard all that to think heury actually copped Zen and got a town-result.
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
04:29 PM ET (US)
This is the progression I see for watcher!plytho:
Hypothesis: plytho saw heury visit Zen (either watcher or tracker works fine actually).
-heury claims he copped you. (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319327#p4319327)
-plytho knows this is a lie and wants to lynch heury (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319343#p4319343)
-plytho wants to know why you're confident we mislynched heury (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319444#p4319444)
-plytho puts Zen as very likely Town (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319537#p4319537). heury is lying about his target, and scum rarely visit each other.
-plytho fishes for a mason crumb from you (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319590#p4319590; http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319604#p4319604). If you're masons with heury, this might explain why he lied about his result, and why you were so confident in a mislynch.
-plytho gives up on mason!heury. (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4319622#p4319622) I'm not sure why this reduces his confidence in Zen.
-plytho decides scum!heury implies Town!Zen. Presumably based on the logic that scum don't need to visit their buddies + heury is lying. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4320431#p4320431
-wam claims he copped you as Town, making plytho sure that heury is scum (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4320697#p4320697), implying Zen is Town.
-plytho backs away from the strength of his claim a bit as he worries about indy!heury (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4322659#p4322659)
03:43 PM ET (US)
- I don't think plytho is Watcher, it's basically the same scenario as him being Tracker (his info is the same) and that one doesn't make sense either.
- I really hope Suzaku didn't just copy the old version with some modifications as that would make a mass-claim actually very advantageous for Town.
- Scum having a Janitor would be very bad. Might have to resort to scum-hunting in that case. :)
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
03:13 PM ET (US)
It wouldn't surprise me if plytho claims watcher. I thought he was some sort of a comparison cop and had a result of Zen/heury aligned or unaligned, but that doesn't make sense with his claims, and a watcher result seems more consistent with the ambiguity he's seeing.
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
02:59 PM ET (US)
-I think Suzaku may have used this game as a template:
A lot of the roles seem very similar:
Town {Holy Man (ends the night if lynched); JoAT with 1 kill, 1 roleblock, 1 shot cop, 1 shot doc; prophet who can reveal flip info; watcher; lover pair; 4x VT}
Wolves {1 shot roleblocker, 1 shot strongman, 1 shot janitor}
If you split the JoAT up into four separate roles, you basically have every claimed ability in this game already accounted for, except for Zen. So I expect that mafia powers in this game are probably similar/better than what the wolves had in that game.

-It seemed obvious to me that you thought I was scum and therefore you wouldn't be an NK target.
01:13 PM ET (US)
2 questions:
- what strong powers could scum have that would cause issues? We had a single NK and nobody said anything about any negative effect (except RB on Madge and even that wouldn't be a problem tomorrow).
- why haven't you asked me about why I asked Vicarin not to protect me?
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
12:55 PM ET (US)
-I think that securing the third lynch was less important than TRYING to secure the third lynch. After EGW's lynch (even before, for several people) a lot of the players stopped trying to contribute. Nobody wanted to give opinions about anything and just wanted to lurk out the rest of the day. I wanted to see people voting and making reads before the flips so that we would have more information to go on.
-I think EGW is going to flip SK, so his flip will be basically NAI for everyone else. I expect heury to flip scum, but I don't have a good read on who his buddies might be, and if the flips go indie/indie or there are some other weird shenanigans that happen during the night, we could be in a very bad situation tomorrow.
-I think that scum likely has strong powers in the night, so the more we can get done in the day phase, the better situation we're going to be in.
-I think there is a very good chance that we are not going to survive this night phase, so I wanted to make sure that I was as productive as I could be before I left the game.
-I have been trying to think of a way to express this last bit that isn't just going to sound like a giant bucket of wine, and I don't really have one, so I'm just going to say it anyway and you can think what you want... I felt that being a bit more aggressive toward the end of the day might make scum feel that I was more suspicious, and therefore more likely to be a good candidate for a mislynch later and hopefully bypass the NK in favor of someone else. For whatever reason people usually find my aggression scummy.
06:05 AM ET (US)
I can't put it into a percentage. Please explain why you felt a third lynch was necessary.
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
05:16 PM ET (US)
You can, though I think we can probably make this work if you don't, within reason. How likely do you think it is that I'm scum?
04:39 PM ET (US)
Okay, but can I trust you?
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
04:20 PM ET (US)
Your #37 pinged my best Town meta tell on you. I will trust you.
12:38 PM ET (US)
Wrong choice of words. I do not think we had a mislynch before.
LaserGuyPerson was signed in when posted
12:15 PM ET (US)
Who do you think was a mislynch?
09:50 AM ET (US)
I find it telling that so many players strong town-read h_a at the very beginning (you included). I think that happens a lot more when there are actual connections to be found and not when he is indie.
With that in mind I think we eliminated 2 anti-town, leaving probably only another 2 alive (if you're Town as well then we had to start with at least 9 townies as a 8-5 setup with townie-lovers is not balanced, especially if there are multiple NK-s). I'm fully aware that I'm using an argument that proved to be wrong in Shakespeare but I have faith in Suzaku.
Furthermore I think that a good case could be made for anybody's lynch and determining which scum-ping I should trust was never my forté. Therefore my best road to victory is not to scum-hunt but to town-hunt, i.e. finding 3 confirmed townies from the rest, lynch everyone else and if game is not over you as well.
This needs as many townies alive as possible D3 and so I didn't want to risk another mislynch.
06:42 AM ET (US)
I don't see that claiming will buy us more than a night. I doubt there's a full doc in the game, for example.

I have you at something like 80% oblivious, 20% scum. But I do have a lot riding on wam's claim checking out. Under ordinary circumstances, I expect one of us would be lynched by now. I was being completely honest though. I am frustrated that our momentum stalled out after EGW's lynch and I do believe that scum was taking advantage of that to slip under the radar. And I definitely believe that we would have benefited from another lynch.
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