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f.ds Diplomacy 4: Spectator Thread

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71
pacovf
12-15-2014
07:07 PM ET (US)
meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh
70
pacovf
12-14-2014
07:48 PM ET (US)
Well, that's quite the specific forecast. I revise my internet award: you get one and a half internets.
69
liopoilPerson was signed in when posted
12-14-2014
07:23 PM ET (US)
I foresaw the other nations thinking that Turkey wasn't as big of a threat anymore and starting to fight each other again.
68
pacovf
12-14-2014
07:19 PM ET (US)
/m66 Ok, ok, you get one internet. :P Though I don't really think you had foreseen Germany bacsktabbing France.
67
WalrusMcFishSrPerson was signed in when posted
12-14-2014
05:14 PM ET (US)
If I were a gamblin man I would still stand by the 3 way tie!
66
liopoilPerson was signed in when posted
12-14-2014
04:27 PM ET (US)
/m64 Did I call it or did I call it? I did call it, and you all didn't take me seriously.
65
WalrusMcFishSrPerson was signed in when posted
12-14-2014
04:16 PM ET (US)
Yeah, I was looking at the map and Turkey is looking quite menacing. France and Germany need to be careful in playing their northern stalemate games, because if they're not then Turkey might just sweep in and seize the win.

It does look like Turkey is angling to take Tun perhaps when the moment is right, and then move towards Mar and Iberia if he can get away with it, which would make 18 centers. I think that's his likeliest endgame here, if France can't keep up his lines and Germany gets greedy. Portugal in particular is extremely defensible though. Maybe Germany has a shot at 18, but it's harder to see how that could happen.

Turkey did mention a 3-way tie in the QTs to someone. I'm not sure if he was entirely serious, but I think France and Germany would be wise to accept that offer.
64
pacovf
12-14-2014
03:55 PM ET (US)
Turkey is going to win. Solo or not, I don't know, but he's going to win.

Where do you think the Turkish fleet is going to?
63
WalrusMcFishSrPerson was signed in when posted
12-02-2014
12:46 PM ET (US)
I agree Germany will probably just take Lon this turn, and continue to secure NTH.

Yeah, I'll still hold to my prediction of a 3-way tie. There might be some jostling but I don't think any one nation can hit critical mass here.
62
pacovf
12-02-2014
11:48 AM ET (US)
So, if Germany wants to keep Holland (and the two neighbouring supply points), he is forced to stop his advance on the French front (ruh and nth attack hol, bur or pic move to bel, den move to kie). That seems like too big a loss in tempo, so he will probably abandon hol for now, and make a move towards the British Isles with his fleet.

Now, the important thing is that France has a larger fleet than Germany, and Germany can't take France without naval support. So unless Germany is counting on Turkey to take supply points from France, his offensive is not moving anywhere. And if he IS counting on Turkey to weaken France, then Turkey will swallow Germany too once he is done taking half of France...
61
pacovf
11-26-2014
07:10 PM ET (US)
Somehow I thought Turkey couldn't break Austria? I guess Germany not intervening made the trick. But then of course a slight miscalculation by Turkey makes the whole point moot.

Germany does seem to want to go for the solo. He's definitely planned it out, since he's doing the move two full turns before he will actually get any supply point from this.
This kinda leaves France in a kingmaking position, because he can't defend both against Turkey and Germany at the same time.

How well Germany advances into France will largely depend on who guesses the other's moves. While Germany has 6 troops positioned against France's 3 and a half (I count Piemonte), theres' a bit of a bottleneck which advantages France.
60
WalrusMcFishSrPerson was signed in when posted
11-26-2014
12:56 PM ET (US)
Is Germany really making a move on France, or is this this a feint? Looks like he is. With the feigned convoy too, that's pretty crafty. France's fleets are well out of position, and Germany has a good chance I think of taking a British center next year. Presumably he's thought it out better than I have; I didn't really expect this. Turkey could threaten to capitalize on this instability, but at this point Germany is just as big as Turkey and perhaps better positioned. I'm curious to see where this goes; I thought the game was winding down!

Turkey has the worst luck with retreating Austrians!
59
pacovf
11-22-2014
08:37 AM ET (US)
Would Turkey taking Austria have shaken things up? I can't see that far into the future.

The way the board looks right now, it seems that there's a stalemate in Italy and Russia. The only way the situation can evolve is if Germany betrays France or if Austria helps Germany take over Turkey, right?
58
WalrusMcFishSrPerson was signed in when posted
11-22-2014
01:11 AM ET (US)
A tactical error from Turkey here, in my opinion. No reason he shouldn't have taken Bud this turn. As I mentioned earlier, cutting potential defensive support is often simpler and safer than supporting yourself (which can itself be cut)...A Gal - Vie would have guaranteed it.

Not like it matters though, probably.
57
pacovf
11-17-2014
09:07 PM ET (US)
Yeah, no. At this point, the only one I see that could conceivably achieve the solo is Germany, and that's assuming other people make mistakes or Austria kingmakes. Otherwise, Germany takes Moscow, and then the Mediterranean and the North are locked up... I guess maybe with enough time Germany can take the East from Turkey, maybe?
56
liopoilPerson was signed in when posted
11-13-2014
07:45 PM ET (US)
I'm gonna go out on a limb, having not studied the board much or looked at the QTs, and guess that Turkey wins it alone.
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