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Poor Tim Tebow

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552
AcrofalesPerson was signed in when posted
04-05-2012
06:37 AM ET (US)
Congrats guys! :)
551
Xatalos
04-05-2012
01:08 AM ET (US)
Nice, good job! Never would have thought evantrees was the Veteran, but oh well, Zealos was the Double Voter :P
550
chaoser
04-04-2012
09:04 PM ET (US)
gentlemen, I have been informed by VE that we have won! Zealos was the double voter and we shot him so we win! congrats all!
549
Xatalos
04-04-2012
11:16 AM ET (US)
Hmm, I guess Zealos and evantrees is okay. I think Kohbee should stay home, chaoser kill evantrees (I really doubt he's PGO with his disinterested behavior...) and I should go kill Zealos (it's the smallest loss for us atm if he actually is PGO).

Send in the kill order :)
548
chaoser
04-04-2012
09:19 AM ET (US)
Since it's 4 v 3 right now, the only reason we aren't able to win outright is due to only a few setups of blues. There's probably no vigis anymore since no one has died to vigi in the last two nights and trackers/DTs don't matter. The only combos that work is vet/double voter or medic/double voter or jailer/double voter. Or there's a PGO. I think there being another jailer is unlikely as no one has claimed roleblock and I doubt there's a medic anymore since we killed jitsu with one KP when Jitsu probably would have been protected over everyone else in the game yesterday. This means there's only two situations that prevent us from winning

vet/double voter or PGO. PGO is obviously the scarier one because if we mess up, it'd be huge. We'd only get one kill and one of us dies. vet/double voter is better because even if we hit the vet, it'll be 3 v 3 com tomorrow, let's say xata gets lynched, then it's 3 v 2, and we get another chance to kill the double voter.

So plan for a game where there's a PGO and shoot accordingly. Don't plan for the lynch since it doesn't matter, everyone in the game sucks right now. I'd suggest a zealos kill for sure though, I don't think he's a blue.

After sleeping on it, I think evantree and zealos might be the best kills. Remember, we're trying to KILL TWO people, not kill blues right now. We want to kill two townies and end the game outright. Curu has already said we can win the game with our kills.
Edited 04-04-2012 09:22 AM
547
Xatalos
04-04-2012
06:59 AM ET (US)
Okay, I have a bit of time now: it's time to theorycraft! :) Let me know what you think, chaoser and Kohbee.

It's confirmed now that the only thing standing between us and victory is blue roles. This means we shouldn't lynch someone who is "skilled", "on the right track" or "pro-town" - we should kill the remaining blues. There is definitely at least 1 blue role left, but my guess is 2-3. Why? Let's take a look at the role list... My theory here is that A) most likely there is one and only one of every blue role B) most likely town and Mafia roles don't overlap. Remember, this is only based on probabilities - it might be wrong.

Vigilante: SLJ, MrZentor (very likely there are no more Vigilantes)
Jailkeeper: Mattchew (somewhat likely there are no more Jailkeepers)
Roleblocker: Acrofales (quite likely there are no more Roleblockers - it would overlap with both Acrofales and Mattchew basically!)
PGO: chaoser (my bet is there are no more PGO's, since a Veteran would fit town much better AND there already is one PGO in Mafia)

So, what do we have left? Veteran, Medic, Double Voter, Tracker. I don't think every role is in the game, since we don't have a Godfather either... BUT I'm 90% certain the remaining 2-3 blue roles come from the list of these 4. We basically don't have to care about a Tracker at all, but any of the remaining roles (Veteran, Medic, Double Voter) might possibly make us lose this game. Even if we fail to win with these night kills, there is of course still a chance to win, although slower. That's why it is essential for Kohbee to remain hidden... It's too late for me, but I don't think chaoser is completely suspicious yet either, although somewhat suspicious. I think I'm going to behave really suspiciously tonight, so if worse comes to worst, you can bus me tomorrow and still win. Don't defend me now; try to act at least remotely pro-town. I'll draw the fire and lynch tomorrow, if need be. Although it MIGHT be possible to get Zealos lynched before me still. What do you think? Bus or mislynch Zealos?

Anyways, back to the blue roles. This is somewhat WIFOM, I guess, but here are my thoughts:

Zealos: He voted for me, but he's also high on the lynch list and reads green townie to me. I don't think he's a very good lynch right now?
Lyter: I'm not really sure what to think of him. He has been very cautious, yet somewhat productive. If I had to guess, I would say Medic or Double Voter. I think we should kill him now in either case? Not sure about him, really.
evantrees: Hardcore lurker. Could be a bored green or blue pretending to be useless. Okay kill target?
Alderan: Hmm, I'm totally undecided on him. Seems quite confident and fearless. Green or Veteran?

Based on my (bit WIFOM) theories, I think this might be good:

Send chaoser to kill evantrees (I really doubt he would be PGO or Veteran, and I doubt there would be a Doc on him)
Send Xatalos to kill Lyter (I think he is Doctor or Double Voter, and there probably isn't a Doctor on him at least, since so many have called him as Mafia)

The rest really depends on how the kills go. If luck is on our side, we just win. If Zealos/Alderan were blues or evantrees/Lyter were targeted by a Doctor, I should be bussed or Zealos lynched?
546
Xatalos
04-04-2012
03:46 AM ET (US)
We've had some bad luck with blue roles, if there still are 2+ alive....!
545
Xatalos
04-04-2012
03:44 AM ET (US)
chaoser, I think you should try to appear Mafia "softly" - so that it's not a certain thing, but if there still is a Vigilante, Tracker or Detective, he will come for you and die horribly. It's pretty much assured I'm Mafia already, so doesn't matter much what I say... :P Kohbee, you should remain "hidden Mafia".

I think killing Zealos and Alderan is OK. I still think there is a Medic, though... Hmm. I'll post a suggestion later if something Medic-suggesting happens in the thread.
544
chaoser
04-03-2012
09:50 PM ET (US)
whatever, that was a really poorly happened LYLO situation mods -_-

xata and kobe, you guys discuss the kill for tomorrow, send me for one of them. I'm not checking mafia at all tomorrow till after the night cycle is over.
543
chaoser
04-03-2012
09:07 PM ET (US)
my final kill list - sent

kill alderan with xatalos
kill zealos with chaoser
Edited 04-03-2012 09:26 PM
542
chaoser
04-03-2012
08:50 PM ET (US)
[8:39:04 PM] Charles Suo: there might be ano combination of vets/double voters/medics/jailkeepers/pgos alive
[8:39:07 PM] Charles Suo: any*
[8:39:38 PM] Charles Suo: and if you're say 3-3 with a double voter then town can still secure a lynch
[8:39:40 PM] Charles Suo: or if none of your shots fall
[8:39:45 PM] Charles Suo: or if a mafia is killed by a pgo
541
chaoser
04-03-2012
08:42 PM ET (US)
i sent in

kill zealos
kill evantree

change if you want, a change on zealos to someone else maybe

or perhaps we can double stack
Edited 04-03-2012 08:43 PM
540
chaoser
04-03-2012
08:32 PM ET (US)
[8:10:12 PM] Chaosers: so did we win? lol
[8:26:56 PM] Charles Suo: i dont think so
[8:27:39 PM] Chaosers: seriously?
[8:27:47 PM] Chaosers: VE just postd that someone was coming
[8:27:51 PM] Chaosers: something*
[8:28:06 PM] Charles Suo: yeah risk is lynched
[8:28:20 PM] Chaosers: you said it was LYLO though
[8:28:31 PM] Charles Suo: assuming everyone was vanilla
[8:31:31 PM] Chaosers: even though it's currently 4 v 3?
[8:31:46 PM] Charles Suo: mmhmm
[8:31:56 PM] Chaosers: da fuck..
[8:31:56 PM] Charles Suo: your night kills can end the game
539
Xatalos
04-03-2012
08:09 PM ET (US)
Looks like gumshoe is active in other threads but just left this game without saying anything :( Well anyways, good night!
538
Xatalos
04-03-2012
08:07 PM ET (US)
Yeah GG and congratulations pre-emptively to all! Dunno where gumshoe disappeared, but good work chaoser, Kohbee and Acrofales!!!
537
Xatalos
04-03-2012
08:06 PM ET (US)
I'm going to sleep now, I'm seriously tired and need some sleep before waking up to work :P I'll check back in like 6 hours - but you can send in the action list to kill whoever two you want, or if we win now automatically, it's fine too :)
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