2012 -- Crime Incidents -- 8% Increase in 1st Quarter
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Crime Stats in posts below
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2012 Trend in Crime Incidents -- We're Getting More Proactive!!!

Year-to-date (YTD) crime is up 8%, BUT by a total of only 17 incident over the first 3 months of 2012. Crime incidents spiked in January, we brought them down in February, and they're up again in March. However, excluding the spike in Drug Violations, crime incidents were up only 8% in March, the same as for the quarter. Police are cracking down on even minor drug abuse violations in the wake of out-of-control gang activity in certain parts of 24th District.

The increase in incident also reflects more proactive calling 911 ... so KEEP CALLING 911.

ARREST RATE & MAJOR CONCERNS
In number of incidents the largest increase in crime incidents has been Drug Violations, which is good because these calls are also driving increased arrests. The arrest rate in the first quarter of 2012 was 2.8 (or for every 2.8 incidents there was 1 arrest). Whereas in 2011, the arrest rate for the first 3 months was 4.9.

Weapons incidents also increased in the first quarter of 2012; however the total for the quarter stills remains at 6. Though is a relatively low rate, it is significantly above the sole incident in the first quarter last year. Police are tracking criminal activity, thanks in part to joint efforts with local universities. Commander Roussell is doing a excellent job in predicting where to expect gang problems and directing police resources to those spots. A strong message is being sent by Chicago police to "out of control" elements of our area and that message is being reinforced on our "northern border" by Evanston Police, which are working very closely with Chicago Police on this issue.

CRIMES SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN HALF OF BEAT
A four year trend is being reversed in 2012: more crime incidents (in percent terms) are happening in the southern half of our beat (south of Rogers Ave.). Over the last four years, in our beat, crime incidents have been divided 60/40 between the northern and southern halves, respectively. Over the last two years that has shifted: in 2010 it was 65/35 and in 2011 it was 70/30. In January, it shifted dramatically in the opposite direction: 55/45! In February, it shifted to 52/48. March remains at 55/45. In other words, the southern part of our beat went from seeing 30% of crime incidents to suddenly seeing nearly half. If total crime incidents were below 2011 levels, this could be explained as a math anomaly, but since incidents are increasing it means a shift in where crime is occurring.

One possible explanation for this shift, according to police, is that as a neighborhood improves a "crime vacuum" is created "tempting" criminals. Another factor possibly influencing this shift in crime incidents is that Morse Ave. has gotten better. In other words, those who were committing crime there may be seeking new areas.

If you want to see continued declines in crime incidents, watch your block!

My mantra is, as always, Call 911 Aggressively! ... Trust me, the police want us to ... even if some 911 call takers don't.

It takes persistence attention to your block to bring down crime incidents. The police can't reduce crime without our help .. improving neighbors is more than calling 911, you also need to call 311 and the alderman's office about problem buildings, graffiti, street light bulbs that need changing, trees that need trimming, etc.

Be a positive presence on your block (set up a block e-mail and phone/text tree ... stay connected with your neighbors, it's the No. 1 best crime deterrent). You and your neighbors working together are the "secret crime fighting weapon."

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Next CAPS meeting is Thursday, April 25, 2012, at 7212 N. Clark, Chicago Math & Science Academy, 7pm
(starts on time and end at 8 pm)
P.S. Starbucks on Western is no longer providing coffee for the meetings; they've changed managers and aren't, well, as supportive of community events.

Crime Incidents & Arrests, 2012 to 2011 (YTD--year to date) in Beat 2424. Source: CPD Clearmap. (Click to see image.) CORRECTION: Arrest rate YTD for 2012=2.8; for 2011=4.9.

2012 Crime Incidents and Arrests in Beat 2424 (thru March). Source: CPD Clearmap (Click to see image.) [Ignore "April" column.]

2012 -- THANK YOU!!! ... Crime Incidents -- 22% Decline in February
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Crime Stats in posts below
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2012 Trend in Crime Incidents -- We're Getting More Proactive!!!

While year-to-date (YTD) crime is up barely 1% (by 1 incident), crime incidents in the month of February declined by 22%. The combination of your calling 911 more and proactive policing is making a big impact. February's stats are the polar opposite of January 27% increase in crime incidents. Arrests, which were up an impressive 100%, in January, are up 32% in February. KEEP CALLING 911.

The major increase in February was Drug Abuse. The plus side to this is that each recorded narcotic incident results in an arrest.

Weapons incidents remain a concern. However, between our acting commander's focus on proactive policing and your calling 911, gang members are getting the message ... that message is being reinforced on our "northern border" by Evanston Police, which are working very closely with Chicago Police on this issue.

CRIMES SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN HALF OF BEAT
Also of concern is the shift in crime incidents between the northern and southern halves of our beat. Historically, in our beat, crime incidents have been divided 60/40 between the northern and southern halves, respectively. Over the last two years that has shifted: in 2010 it was 65/35 and in 2011 it was 70/30. In January, it shifted dramatically in the opposite direction: 55/45! In February, it shifted to 52%/48%. In other words, nearly 50% of all crime incidents in our beat occurred in the southern part of our beat; while in 2011 only 30% occurred there. That's a big shift.

One possible explanation for this shift, according to police, is that as a neighborhood improves a "crime vacuum" is created "tempting" criminals. Another factor possibly influencing this shift in crime incidents is that Morse Ave. has gotten better. In other words, those who were committing crime there may be seeking new areas.

If you want to see continued declines in crime incidents, remain vigilant!

My mantra is, as always, Call 911 Aggressively! ... Trust me, the police want us to ... even if some 911 call takers don't.

It takes persistence attention to your block to bring down crime incidents. The police can't reduce crime without our help .. improving neighbors is more than calling 911, you also need to call 311 and the alderman's office about problem buildings, graffiti, street light bulbs that need changing, trees that need trimming, etc.

Be a positive presence on your block (set up a block e-mail and phone/text tree ... stay connected with your neighbors, it's the No. 1 best crime deterrent). You and your neighbors working together are the "secret crime fighting weapon."

**********************************************************
Next CAPS meeting is Thursday, March 22, 2012, at 7212 N. Clark, Chicago Math & Science Academy, 7pm
(starts on time and end at 8 pm)
P.S. Starbucks on Western is no longer providing coffee for the meetings; they've changed managers and aren't, well, as supportive of community events.