Again, we're in a market that looks as if it "wants" to go up. I suspect that what's been happening is that all the people who sat on the sidelines while the market gained 50-60% are now jumping in.

My last transfer was pretty close to being on the money. Trouble is, I needed to transfer back into the stock funds on Sep 2. I was hoping for a bigger pullback than what we got. Oh well, at least my money is safe - LOL.

The news background has been very good - yesterday I heard that Bernanke said the recession is probably over. A lot of the numbers are coming in better than forecast, and consumer sentiment took a big jump in the last report. Our friend over at TSPtalk keeps pointing to various indicators, and the "smart money" seems to be looking for that long-awaited pullback. I think the money on the sidelines jumping in is what's keeping those pullbacks from developing into something I want to "play".

I just looked at a chart for the Dow, and I've been telling everyone at work for the last couple of weeks that I thought 10,000 was do-able. Anyhow, on the chart, I see 10,000 is just a number - 10,500 & 11,000 are the areas where I see actual resistance.

Here's a blast from the past:

June 2, 2003 G Fund ===> $10.00
Sep 16, 2009 G Fund ===> $13.0045

June 2, 2003 C Fund ===> $10.03
Sep 16, 2009 C Fund ===> $12.5938

So, if you'd have put all your money into the G fund in June of 2003, you'd have outperformed the stock fund. Looking back, though, if you'd have shifted back & forth just a few times AT EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME, you'd have kicked butt!

The I Fund did much better during those 6 years:

June 2, 2003 I Fund ===> $10.17
Sep 16, 2003 I Fund ===> $18.4287

The point is to look for various strategies based on what has happened in the past. Trouble is, the market has a way of doing things it didn't do in the past.

On the chart, I noticed that the RSI indicator has just started peeking over 70 again - sometimes a sign of being overbought. Last time it went over 70, it stayed for a couple of weeks and we got that last pullback (the one I avoided by pulling out, but then missed the subsequent run-up).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui