In checking my TSP account today, I noticed that this pay's contribution has now been credited.

I'd like to hear what exactly happened.

It looks like no one has posted here in over a month.

An update on the TSP contributions - my last 2 have gone in Wednesday night, as usual, so it does look like it may have been a one-time computer glitch.

I've noticed that if you sign into your account under "All Account Transactions" and check your account balance, it now gives you "Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the 12 months ending 06/30/2009"

My PIP was -5%, but I'm guessing that will go up as we drop a few of those bad months in 2008 off.

Lastly, we had a bang-up day in the markets today, and I'm figuring the C fund will jump up around 33 - 34 cents, to $10.945. The high for the C fund in this up move was $11.08 on June 12, so we're within striking distance of breaking that mark. The TSPtalk guy has been sticking to his guns that this is a bear market rally, and the top here is around 925-930 (his last call was 923) Today's S&P close was 932.68, so we're above his level. He rightly points out that this is an options expiration week, and things could get dicey next week. We eventually have to break out in one direction or another, so keep watching.

Yesterday, I mentioned that the market high for this move up was June 12. That day, the Dow Jones finished at 8,799.26, and the S&P500 came in at 946.21. Today, the Dow closed at 8711.82, and the S&P500 closed at 940.74, so you can see we're very close to "testing" those previous highs. The market has been VERY strong the last week, after a dip. I heard the employment figures today were good, and we're just getting into earnings season, with a few good reports. The NASDAQ market has been stronger than the market as a whole, indicating the tech sector is doing well. The NAZ closed at 1,885.03 today, easily eclipsing the mark it hit on June 11 (it actually beat that mark with yesterday's close). So, it's possible we should be watching the NAZ for a clue.

My best guess is that the C fund share price will hit $11.039 tonight, still about 4 cents from the June 12 high.

manOman: Thanks for posting your thoughts here. I respect your views on the market and was glad to see that you have started posting again. If you ever decide to quit posting here, I hope you can leave a link to a place where we could read your views.
 Has the TSP talk guy ever been right? He has all the charts and prior market results that can be very persuasive, but from what I have read he never seems to call anything right. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate his commentary and he obviously is very knowledgeable, I'm just glad I have not followed his conclusions. I would much rather hear what you have to say.
 Personally, I am a little anxious about the next few days and months for that matter. All the new taxes and regulations coming down the pike will surely slow, stop or reverse any of the rebound we have seen. What say you?

I second that Big D... I've always appreciated manOman's commentary. I used to transfer my funds every day based on the info I was taking in and then lost interest when they changed the rules only allowing 2 transfers per month.
I figured last year was so dismal that the market would have to rebound this year, so I moved my money into the highest risk funds and let it ride. I've been too scared to look at my balance for quite some time, but actually went in to check it out a few minutes ago.

Up over $7,000 in 2009 and while a portion of that is attributable to new contributions, it's still nice to see that number take a sizable jump upward instead of the other way.

ManOman if you have any "feelings" the market is going to correct or take a dump, I'd appreciate a heads up.

Thanks guys. The problem I have is that each individual's investment goals & temperament are different, and I can't give advice tailored to suit everyone's circumstances. At times, I've talked some of the 100% safe (G fund) people at work into switching to riskier funds when the market was down, only to see them refuse to listen when I tell them the market is starting to look toppy.

I think pabak's move into the market this year was GREAT, because he made the decision based on his feelings. That means he took all the individual factors that I know nothing about into account when he made his move. Way back when he started this board, he made a super call - the market was way too high, and he acted on that - easy to see in retrospect, but very few were making that move then.

bigD, I understand what the TSPtalk guy is doing in following all the charts & trends - he's looking to take the emotion out of his investment decisions - but I agree he's missing the big picture somehow. With all his charting acumen, he missed the reverse head & shoulders formation I saw back in March, so you've got to remember that technical analysis is only part of the picture. That said, a look at the S&P chart shows it's blasted through the 50-day moving average (blue line) to the upside, after riding down on the back of the 200-day MA (red line) since late May. I've been riding this rally hard in my personal account (up over 100% this year) and so I'm a lot more cautious with my TSP $$ to balance out that risk.

My feeling is that the market seems to "want" to break that June 12 high, but I also know we're in a seasonal period that is usually pretty weak. Throw in the factors that bigD mentioned, and you're back to the old dilemma - should I be greedy & stay in in case the market keeps going up, or should I take some money off the table (park it in the G fund) in case the market pulls back?

Here's the S&P chart:


http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

A lot of times after we get a big up or down day on Friday options expiration, we'll see a reversal on the following Monday. I was all set to do a switch Friday since we'd had a big up week, but there didn't seem to be much action Friday. Commentators probably said the market was consolidating its big gains for the week (up 7%, I think I read).

So, anyhow, we're pretty much back to where we were a little over a month ago (June 12). The market hasn't QUITE passed that June 12 mark, and we've got a lot of possible negatives staring us in the teeth, but IF Mr. Market can convincingly break through that mark, I'm thinking it could make it back up to 1,000 on the S&P. That would be about 7% from where it is right now. A move to 1,000 COULD also spark a buying panic as all the money on the sidelines rushes to get back in, but right now I think the odds of that seem low (but they should be taken into account). Also, there's what's called market momentum, where the market tends to overshoot the levels that the "pros" think it will hit - we certainly saw that on the downside!

So, we get to a little game market traders call the risk/reward ratio.
I'm guessing the market MIGHT go to 1,000. Our TSPtalk friend (last I saw) is thinking we could retest the 800 level (which would be a 15% drop). Both of these guesses are fairly short term (and both of the guessers are leaving themselves plenty of room if they're wrong). For me it's almost impossible to assign odds to each scenario (along with a 3rd possibility - the market stays at about the same level). What you have to figure then, is whether you want to take a chance on getting 6-7% more while risking a possible 15% loss, or giving up the shot at 7% while insuring that you won't take a 15% hit - that's a huge simplification, since the possible permutations are endless, and the market is a moving target - the possibilities change every day. Because of the 2 changes/month rule, your best bet is to try to ride the market when it's in one of its longer-term movements (like it's been since early March this year).

I THINK if the market can break through 950 on the S&P or around 8850 on the Dow, we could see the move up to 1000 S&P or 9500 Dow. Again, remember we're in a "weak" seasonal period for the market, and we're in the midst of "earnings season" where earnings disappointments could scare the bejeezus out the same people who were buying last week (so far most earnings have been a bit better than anticipated.) It's beginning to look like Obama's health plan might run into problems, which some might take as a good sign.

I took so long to write this that I see the TSPtalk guy is out with his commentary. Now saying 940 is resistance, and if we pass that he might "think" about getting on board. Hmmmm. Maybe it's time for me to start watching for a drop...

Right now the Dow futures are up over 50 points, so we could have a good day IF that holds. We'll see how things come out as the day progresses. Happy Monday out on those rural routes. Gotta go.

Funny the way it is

With apologies to Dave Matthews, last night I said:

I THINK if the market can break through 950 on the S&P or around 8850 on the Dow, we could see the move up to 1000 S&P or 9500 Dow.

Today the S&P closed at 951.13, and the Dow at 8848.15. So I must be some kind of freakin' genius, right?? Well, even the blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. But seriously, that's why some of those funny market numbers are called RESISTANCE - the market tends to bang up against them and stop, leaving us to try & figure out what comes next.

Regardless of my lucky call, today's close on the S&P should bring the C Fund up to $11.162, which exceeds that June 12 close I've been watching. SO, barring unforeseen circumstances, it appears to be POSSIBLE the market could head higher here. Is that a guarantee from yours truly? Sorry, you get what you pay for here. It's easy to imagine any one of a hundred things that could blunt this rally, but it does look as if it may have "legs".

Lastly, a word about the TSPtalk guy. He puts it on the line EVERY day, and I know how tough that is - I don't have that kind of staying power. If you try to predict what the market is doing, you're eventually going to look like an idiot. I'm guessing the TSPtalk commentary MIGHT move a bit toward the bull side tonight, but I'm sure he'll still be cautious (not a bad thing to be.)

One indicator I watch is the RSI (relative strength index). A stock or index is considered a bit overbought when the RSI goes above 70, and oversold when it drops below 30. A look at that chart I keep putting up shows the S&P is nearing 70, but we've got a little room yet, and this is just ONE of a million technical signs which are often wrong (or we'd all be rich)

bb, if you're out there, check out HGSI, and guess who has a mailbox full of shares - I'm VERY HAPPY tonight!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX

Just got back from dinner, and I was looking through the news for the "whys" of today's up move (btw, I was very close on my C fund call). One thing I had heard on the news all day was the jump in the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for June. One thing I missed was that there is a bailout of sorts in place for CIT Financial. Here's a story that mentions both:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...cial/f070645D80.DTL

Remember, these are LEADING indicators, which supposedly give us an idea on what's coming 3-6 months out. Coincidentally, the market supposedly moves in anticipation of events 3-6 months ahead of time, so it looks like the two may be in sync.

Here's a P&F chart of the S&P 500. Point & figure charting is one of the oldest forms of charting, and I'm not too sure of its reliability, but it does give you an idea sometimes of possible targets:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P&listNum=

Note above the chart this comment: Traditional 3 box reversal chart. Preliminary bullish objective - 1115. Well, crap, maybe I'll have to adjust my upside target, but I'm liking 1,000 because that would complete another reverse head & shoulders (sounds like some kind of weird shampoo).

Let's see what the experts have to say. You guys can chime in any time with opinions or articles you find. Maybe we can figure this out together...

 manOman: When you post, you are so thorough it is tough to add to it.
 Looking at the earning reports today, it seems to bode well for the market. Cat even topped the estimates. I have read several stories (forgot to bookmark) where many analysts are looking toward the 1100-1150 S&P by year end. They must follow you as well. (ha) Anyway, I just doubled my exposure to the C, S and I funds. I hope that does not jinx everyone.
 I also have a Roth fund that I use for stock trading. The last week has been very nice to me.

As bigD noted, the Caterpillar earnings pushed the market up nicely this morning, then it dropped back and was down at around 1:00 before going back up again to finish higher at the close. I've lost track, but I think that's something like 6 or 7 straight up days. When you see that, it's usually time for a pullback. I was sort of expecting a down day today, but I'm figuring the C fund is going up almost 4 more cents to $11.203 tonight. That's the highest the C fund has been since Nov 4 (the big election day rally).

After the close tonight, Apple came in with a nice earnings number (above what the ANALysts expected), so we might see a pop in the tech sector tomorrow - Advanced Micro & Yahoo earnings looked OK too.

bigD's report that some analysts are looking at the 1100-1150 range on the S&P fits the Point & Figure chart I put up in /m1469. You have to remember that even if the market DOES hit that range, the ride there might be akin to taking a roller coaster to get to that level.

I see the TSPtalk guy is watching the drop in the US Dollar. The drop bodes especially well for the I fund, which does well when the dollar is falling. The I fund's close last night @ $15.77 easily beats its Nov 4 mark of $15.15, and it should go higher tonight (maybe 10 -15 cents). Of course, I can remember when it was in the $24-26 range for quite a while, so this is no great shakes, but still better than $10.29, where it stood on March 9th this year. For reference, the C fund was $7.8673 that day, so if anyone had gone all in that day, they'd be up around 45-50% today - not a bad return for 4 months!

Again, very short term, it wouldn't surprise me to see the market stop to catch its breadth (technical analysis joke, there). I'm getting worried that we're hearing more about how the market is coming back, but a lot of people probably missed this 50% move, so maybe we'll get a stampede as everyone rushes to get in. Of course, if that happens, at some point it'll be time to get out. Gotta stop - I'm getting dizzy here.

Got home early enough to watch the market close today (there's an advantage for light mail days!), and it looked for a while like we might get a decent drop. The Dow finally finished down about 34 points, but the NAZ was up 10 (go NAZ!) The .51 drop in the S&P ends the up streak, but that should only shave about 1/2 cent off of the C fund - from 11.2033 to something like 11.1975 (that was a quick figure, so it could be wrong).

Volume looked light in most of the stocks I watch, and if that was the case with the overall market, that's a good sign - light volume on a "down" day. As you all know by now, though, market volume is light in the Summer (so is mail volume).

We're getting into the heart of earnings season, with a lot of the biggies scheduled to report tonight & tomorrow, so we could get some surprises.

I notice the TSPtalk guy said the "smart money" has gotten more bullish (NOW he notices - LOL). It's very hard to follow all these indicators, and you have a tendency to pick out the ones that support your own bias. Let's hope the smart money is right.

Signing off to take the Mrs. out to a rare mid-week dinner. As I noted many times, when the NAZ is up, the value of my personal portfolio jumps and life is GOOD.

Rural carriers - be sure to keep up on the latest news & rumors - check the sites and STAY INFORMED. This is YOUR livelihood they're talking about.

DEUCES WILD

The S&P finished at 976.29 today, up 22.22. Meanwhile, the Dow popped up above 9,000, finishing at 9069. That nifty little gain should put the C fund within a hairs-breath of $11.36. The S fund will be up a bit more, while the I fund didn't do as well. The F fund looks like it probably dropped.

The main economic news I heard out on the route today was that sales of old (as opposed to new) houses were up again last month. Also, Ford reported a huge gain, but a lot of that was accounting stuff rather than great sales. I just looked & saw quite a few earnings reports coming in better than expected which is a good thing. However, Mr Softie (also known as Microsoft) was dropping after the market close - I think the earnings weren't up to snuff. Also, Amazon hit the estimate, but that evidently wasn't good enough. Not sure if the Microsoft thing will hurt us tomorrow.

Here's a site with after-hours updates on specific companies:
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay

Notice how many beat their estimates (including NetFlix, I see).

Reading TSPtalk this morning really confused me. I'm not sure that guy is watching the same market I am. He commented that the S&P hadn't hit a new high, but he was using an INTRA-DAY high from June 11, then comparing that to yesterday's CLOSING price. The intra-day high yesterday BEAT that one from June 11, and the CLOSING price kicked butt compared to the June 11 & 12 closes, so he's comparing apples to oranges or something.
I think tonight he won't be able to deny that we've hit a new high in this cycle (which he should have realized a couple of days ago).

With today's closing prices, my "feeling" that we could soon see 1000 on the S&P and 9500 on the Dow MAY be a bit on the conservative side, but Mr. Market has a way of fooling us, so watch closely.

One saying you hear a lot is "the trend is your friend", and the trend has been up for a while now, so you have to ride it, but do some thinking about where to get off.

Got to go now - brakes on the mailmobile gave out at the end of my route today (better than the beginning!!), and it looks like the manOmechanic's got some work ahead of him tonight.

Just got cleaned up & see I made a 10 cent error on the C fund. I figured it'd be up 26 cents today, added that to 11.199 and came up with 11.36 oops, make that 11.46. The official figure was 11.4594. Well, that extra dime will come in handy.

Looking at the after hours market, the Microsoft report looks like it may hurt.

Here's another link for the market futures (I like Bloomberg, but sometimes it won't load for me):

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures

Right now that site is showing the Dow futures down 38, but the NASDAQ quote looks a little screwy to me (Bloomberg's showing it down 9)

Usually I write a commentary before I look at what others have to say, and looking now, I see I missed the employment report that came out today. It didn't look horrible, but ask someone who's unemployed about that.

Hopefully, you guys are bookmarking some of these links, so you can do your own prognosticating somewhere down the line. I know I don't have it in me to do this every night.

Lastly, I just now looked at the charts for the Dow & S&P. A while back I pointed out that the market could be overbought when the RSI goes over 70. The RSI went over 70 today. That doesn't necessarily mean we're going into a tailspin, but it indicates we may need a breather.

The other thing I see on the charts is that the 100-day moving average is probably going to cross over the 200-day tomorrow on the S&P (came VERY close today). The same is not true for the Dow. It looks like a 100/200 crossover is at least a few days out. A note here - I use the SIMPLE moving average (being a simple kinda guy), while others (TSPtalk included) watch the EXPONENTIAL moving average, which gives a bit more weight to recent moves, and using that average, it doesn't look like we're that close, though it looks like the 20-day may cross the 200 day soon.

Remember, we've come a long way, and it's never a mistake to "lock in" at least a part of your gains. Only you know the amount of risk that's right for you, so use your judgment.

Good luck!

manOmechanic- that's a good one. Ha.
 Another great day in the market. Most of the earning reports seem to be better than anticipated. Unemployment rates (over 10%) seem to be built in to the market stats. Housing sales are recovering. Most businesses have made huge cuts to try to maintain their profits. Inventories are down. There is still a lot of money on the sidelines that could propel the market even higher. It is hard to get out right now. But that is when the market likes to bite you.
 We are definitely due for a market pullback. It is just hard to time it.