pabak  09-07-2011
04:59 PM ET (US)
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manoman...sorry old friend, but my Tigers just put a large fork in your Indians. It's all over but the shouting now. The tribe does have a promising future though, just might want to add to that pitching staff. As it is I'm glad you got Jiminez and we got the lesser-known Fister.
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manOman 09-05-2011
11:34 PM ET (US)
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Right now the Dow futures are down just about 250 points. The U.S. markets were closed today, but the world markets were dropping on renewed fears over what are called "sovereign debt" problems, i.e. skepticism that various countries in the European Union will be able to deal with their national debt continues to spook the markets.
The U.S. market has had a really nice run-up since the latest bottom, and it's possible that this is just a good excuse for the big players to take profits. However, remember that September (& October) have seen some of the weakest market action historically.
One thing I haven't really talked about too much previously is perception. I think it's possible that the constant drumbeat of bad news that we hear daily has a cumulative effect on our national psyche. It didn't help that Friday's jobs report came in at ZERO. (Not to mention the USPS is looking to add to that jobless number.) We had a BIG-TIME recession and market meltdown a couple of years back, and a lot of people got really hurt financially. So, if they even THINK that we MIGHT see another economic weakness develop, they're going to head for the hills. Once bitten, twice shy. Thing is, that type of action is liable to precipitate the very action that those people fear. Self-fulfilling prophecy type stuff. We just got a consumer confidence survey that was WAAAAAAY down. Why? Constant exposure to bad news, along with watching the ineffectual actions of our do-nothing Congress.
So, we could be headed back to a "test" of the 1120 area of the S&P. The last TSPtalk commentary I read suggested that the last quarter of this year could see another move up. You feeling lucky??
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Deleted by topic administrator 08-24-2011 09:42 PM
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manOman 08-12-2011
11:08 PM ET (US)
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day late, dollar(s) short
Wednesday we had that gigundous drop in the market, and Thursday morning the futures were down over 100, SO... I put in for an interfund transfer, hoping I'd get in at a nice, low price.
Didn't happen! The market got some good employment news & that Cisco report helped run the market up over 400 points - heck! First time I can remember being mad that the market went up. So instead of getting in at a lower price, my transfer hit after the close Thursday and I got shares at much higher prices. For instance, the S fund was $18.4733 Wednesday night, but my transfer took effect on Thursday after the price vaulted to $19.4416, almost a buck higher. This shows how tough it is to try to time a switch. I did make a bit on today's rise with the S up around 9 cents, but had I caught that $1 move, I'd be back out tonight. Sigh.
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After a long period of quiet, the postal boards are buzzing tonight over the latest outrage being perpetrated by the USPS. 120,000 layoff, pension & health plans taken over by USPS - who comes up with this B.S.? At any rate, it appears to have FINALLY woken up a few of the snoozing postal workers. GLTA
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manOman 08-11-2011
08:28 AM ET (US)
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From last night's post:
"So, as we speak, the Dow futures are UP 155 points - isn't this fun? Of course, that could turn around by tomorrow's trading as some new fear springs up to spook investors."
Well, guess what - the Dow futures are now DOWN 90 points, and I saw them down as much as 150 earlier. So look for more gyrations today.
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pabak - I placed a small bet with a fellow rural on the Cleveland/Detroit series outcome, with a 2X kicker for a sweep, so I have my fingers crossed...
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pabak 08-11-2011
12:02 AM ET (US)
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manoman... Jim Leyland was just given a one year extension, which means you have nothing to worry about. His teams have collapsed in the second half for five consecutive seasons.
Playing the team that is biting at his heels, he rests THREE starting players tonight. He "rests" players ALL of the time, including the week they took a 4-game lead into the final week and then lost to Minnesota in a one game playoff. In the next to last game of the regular season he sends a rookie out to make his first MLB start!
Verlander is nothing short of amazing, but I did predict (not here) an Indian's sweep and you won't be the only one's catching up to Detroit. In fact you might as well be more concerned about Chicago.
Leyland and his three headed Pirate staff including McClendon, Lamont and Jones are the laughing stock of the MLB. Worst management team anywhere. Not to mention his infatuation with that loser Ryan Raburn. Guy hits .200 every year and Leyland makes sure he plays every day.
Don't get me started!
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manOman 08-10-2011
11:18 PM ET (US)
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Another brutal day in the market, with the Dow down 519 points. I think the good thing about these huge down days is that they could move the market back into buying territory for the bargain hunters much more quickly. Somewhere I saw yesterday's big gain referred to as a dead cat bounce. You see that a lot in individual stocks which take a real nosedive then "bounce" back for a while, only to drop further. It's important to remember that a good part of what's going on in our market is related to what's going on in Europe. The list of countries over there with debt crises gets longer every day. Bank & finance stocks are really taking a beating over there, and at least part of the uncertainty is affecting our market - not to say that we haven't got some issues, just that there are several forces at work here. Anyhow, after the market closed today, tech bellwether stock Cisco Systems came out with some pretty good earnings, which lifted that stock & some other techs in after-hours market trading. So, as we speak, the Dow futures are UP 155 points - isn't this fun? Of course, that could turn around by tomorrow's trading as some new fear springs up to spook investors. ================================= I've been meaning to throw out a link for the VIX (volatility index) again, so you can see that there's another POSSIBLE indicator of when to head for the hills: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+...bol=%5EVIX;range=3m================================= And on a more important matter, my Tribe will be looking for a sweep of the Tigers tomorrow. Hopefully Carmona will be on, because we know that Verlander is almost always lights out. Edited 08-10-2011 11:23 PM
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pabak 08-09-2011
06:54 PM ET (US)
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AMAZING rally in the final hour today. Look's like the bargain hunters decided enough was enough and jumped all over some grossly low-balled share prices.
Funny thing was the rally came right on the heels of the fed meeting and from what I heard it didn't seem like what was said would translate to a wild shift upward.
I hope for everyone's sake the rally continues.
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manOman 08-09-2011
08:02 AM ET (US)
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It looks like there was a big turnaround overnight, as I'm looking at futures UP 147 right now. Again, the market was VERY oversold, and some big bounces are to be expected.
Given the nature of the TSP transfer system, though, it's pretty hard to take advantage of short-term moves.
Keep watching.
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manOman 08-08-2011
10:08 PM ET (US)
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Ouch! When I finished that last comment about 45 minutes ago, the Dow futures were down 111 points. Right now, they're down 274!!!
This MIGHT turn out to be one of those quick & dirty drops, but remember the old Wall Street saying, "Don't try to catch a falling knife."
Be sure to read yesterday's TSPtalk column and I'm sure tonight's will be interesting when it comes out.
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manOman 08-08-2011
09:20 PM ET (US)
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Unless you've been in outer space today, you no doubt heard the news - U.S. stock market takes a DIVE. Well, duh! If you were listening to the news, it seemed like most of the stories had to do with the S&P downgrade of U.S. government debt. Well, guess what? Investors were buying the crap out of U.S. debt today, resulting in an INCREASE in their price! Thus, the F fund was UP today, while all of the other funds (except the C) took HUGE dives. The C fund was down almost a buck, the I was down about $1.27 & the S fund tanked $1.69!!!!
The L funds got clocked too, but didn't drop quite as much as the "pure" stock funds. I noticed that the L2050 fund, which premiered on Jan 31 this year at $10, finished today at $8.8356. Not a good 6-month return (-25%). Ironically, if I were a young'un, I'd probably drop some of my money into this one at some point - but don't be in any rush.
Right now, the futures for tomorrow are vacillating between -60 & -80, but tomorrow is a long way off. There is NO QUESTION that the market is WAY oversold here, and we could see a bounce in the immediate future. Interestingly, the S&P finished the day with EVERY SINGLE S&P 500 stock in the red, and apropos of that, the final tally showed the S&P 500 down by 79.92 or 6.66% <=== get it? We're doomed!
I just did a quick calculation, and I think the S&P is off around 18% from its high this year. That puts it very close to bear market territory. Bear markets typically shave 20% or more off of stock prices. The length of a bear market varies considerably. I've seen some quick & dirty ones, and looooong protracted ones. IF we're going into one now, it would behoove everyone to sit back and watch. At some point, there will be a great "buying opportunity".
I just took another look at the futures - now down 111 on the Dow. SHEESH! Remember, this too will pass.
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manOman 08-07-2011
08:13 PM ET (US)
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Right now, the futures on the Dow are down 223 points. Assuming they stay that low, we could be looking at a pretty big drop in the market tomorrow.
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not retiring yet
08-07-2011
09:58 AM ET (US)
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LEO/ m/1672 ? Matching $$ amounts, cannot be "loaned" go to tsp.org and look at loans You can only borrow what you have contributed and the minimum is $1,000
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manOman 08-06-2011
08:19 PM ET (US)
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Skin in the game
The above saying crops up often on the stock investment boards that I frequent. Basically, it boils down to something like "why are YOU telling US what to do if you don't have any skin (money) bet on the outcome." Right now, I don't have any skin in the game - all my bets are sitting on the sidelines in the G (safe) fund. I did do that quick in & out last week hoping the debt ceiling bill's passage would trigger a quick pop up. The market's reaction scared me enough to jump back out, fortunately the day before the real bloodletting. I'm so close to retirement that I just can't afford to take a 5 or 10% haircut on my TSP account.
SO, my inclination is to stop doing any commentary, since I'd hate to see anyone make a bad move based on my advice. That's why I've consistently tried to avoid giving direct buy or sell signals, leaving that to others. Hopefully, anyone still reading this thread is market savvy enough to make their own decisions.
Anyhow, good luck with the market, the rural mail count & U.S. Congress' bills "fixing" the USPS. I have a strong feeling we're going to need it.
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manOman 08-06-2011
08:08 PM ET (US)
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On Friday, Standard & Poors' lowered their credit rating on U.S. government debt. It's really hard to try and get a good fix on exactly what this will mean to the market going forward, but there's no shortage of experts telling us what it means. Here's a story:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-downgr...-821085521.html?x=0
One part of this article rang a bell with me because I had gotten the idea that the prolonged wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling had hurt consumer confidence, and that loss of confidence helped hurt the economy and tank the stock market. It's even possible that the market drop was in anticipation of the S&P downgrade. Long story short, all bets are off for what may happen in the market Monday. I don't think anyone really knows what effect this action will have. I can't see it being anything other than negative, but I guess it's possible that it MIGHT get the professional politicians (aka idiots) to start thinking about doing something for their country rather than attacking each other. Unfortunately, all I heard from them today was another round of the blame game.
One thing to watch would be the F Fund. It dropped on Friday, and that's what you would expect from a downgrade - people won't pay as much for a lower-rated bond.
I've read several stories noting that there is very little the government can do to keep the economy from heading south again. Perhaps we'll see another quantitative easing (QE3?), and Pres. Obama is proposing a veterans' jobs program.
Meanwhile, the tea-party robots seem determined to dismantle the Post Office, judging by the bills being authored by Issa & crew. The latest report of a $5 Billion USPS "loss" should add fuel to the fire. I read a VERY SHORT response from one of the House Republicans in which he used the word "bailout" FOUR TIMES in 2 sentences!! Nothing like a totally uninformed idjit shooting his mouth about things he knows nothing about.
The jobs report that came out Friday was actually pretty good, PLUS the numbers for previous reports were revised upwards. Remember all those people who got elected by shouting the mantra "JOBS, JOBS, JOBS" Where are they now? The employment report has been pretty anemic precisely because THEY are behind the layoff of thousands of government workers. ARRRRRRGH!
So, what to do? USUALLY what happens in this type of situation is that buyers adopt a "wait & see" posture. Buyers holding back on buys gives an extra punch to the sellers, resulting in more of a drop than usual. I'm just not sure that the market didn't anticipate all this - i.e., has this particular bit of news already been discounted? Regardless, I THINK we'll see an initial drop on Monday. I believe the S&P is 12% off its high, so another 3% would put us in bear market territory. Again, try to keep up with the latest news, since the situation is fluid enough that you might need to act quickly.
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person_guyz
08-06-2011
05:33 PM ET (US)
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Take another look at the chart in /m1676 - the long red "candles" on the right side show the market devastation. The RSI & MACD are way into oversold territory and they are both much lower than they were in the big dip we had back in Sep 2010. Micheal
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