Hope no one jumped in the C fund lately.Unemployment hit 6 per cent.Things don't look good for the economy.

Gustav didn't hurt oil production in the Gulf as was feared, and oil has been dropping through the 200-day moving average, while gas in OH has dropped into the $3.40 range (should be around 3.30 according to the futures).

The stock futures are up nicely this morning, but Friday's drop could keep us from breaking back through 1300 on the S&P today unless we get a bigger rally than what it looks like right now.

We've had a couple of good days. If you look at TSPtalk, you'll see the trend up to the Labor Day holiday is usually strong, but September is usually a weak month for the market. Maybe that will change this year.

Last night after the close, Dell came out with a poor earnings report, and said they see weakness in the tech sector. That's probably going to hurt the techs today.

Have a great Labor Day.

The market is in malaise.No good news coming out.Gustav may wreck the Gulf.Can Hillary jump start the market for Wednesday?

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators for July fell .7%, which indicates we could be in for more trouble ahead. The price of oil, which had been falling has now bounced off the 200-day moving average, and appears to be heading back up. The US dollar looks like it MIGHT be getting a bit toppy. These developments are not good for the market, which appears to be setting up for another drop. We're in a time of year that has sometimes been pretty weak.

So, what's the good news? Probably that we're nearer to the end of the market malaise than the beginning. The G fund is still providing a safe haven.

The Producer Price Index number was really ugly today. The market reacted badly, and it looks like it's poised to re-test the lows (yet again).

As bb98 pointed out, oil looks like it might be making a move up again. I was pretty shocked that it dropped as much as it did. Several weeks back, I said there was a SLIGHT possibility that it would drop back to the 200-day moving average, and it actually did! The mess with Russia & Georgia isn't helping any either. Nikkei not down too much right now, & US futures up a bit.

Mr. Market is not going up now.Two back to back down days over 100 doesn't look good.Oil is back up again.

Right now, the Japanese stock market (Nikkei) is getting clobbered - down 350 points or 2.65%. The problems at Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac are being cited in part as a reason. We'll see tomorrow if this carries over into the US market - right now the US futures are down, but not by much. The 180-point drop in the Dow today is probably part of the reason Japanese stocks are tanking.

/m1314 barebull, I remember old Joe quite well. I once saw him drop his pants, and on his underwear he'd written a market prediction. All of those guys get "hot" at some time or other, if their predictions are accurate. I remember Elaine Garzarelli being the big shot at one point [1].

As with Cramer, Granville is also a showman, which gets him some recognition.

COLA update

The NRLCA site now has a message on the COLA under "What's New?":

COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENT EFFECTIVE AUGUST 30, 2008

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) for July rose to 644.3. This is an increase of 37.7 points above the May 2007 base of 606.6. This represents a COLA increase of $1497 per annum, $57.58 per pay period or 72 cents per hour for a 40-hour route, and is increased proportionally for routes over 40 hours. This increase will become effective on August 30, 2008, (Pay Period 19) in accordance with Article 9.1 .F.2 of the 2006-2010 National Agreement.

The next opportunity for additional COLA will be with the release of the January 2009 Consumer Price Index.
==========================

I've examined their methodology, and understand how they are doing the calculation. My method was shortcutting a few steps, and the result was a slightly different answer. At any rate, I'll take the extra $20/year, but I'm guessing that management will be out for blood in the 2009 count.

You are right manoman. It will be $1477. The formula is the same but city carriers are Level 6 and rurals and clerks are level 5. They make more, so their COLA is higher.

bb98, the NALC site has an update showing their COLA will go up $1498 - LOL

http://www.nalc.org/news/latest/index.html

They have the rate at 72 cents/hour, so they may have rounded up. I used the formula in our contract, and I'm sure of my figures, but regardless, we're looking at something like a $1475 - 1500 COLA. That has GOT to hack off management (I mean after all, they ONLY get a measly BONE-US)

Well,I hope to heck you are close manoman.Does anyone remember Joe Granville?It seems like he called the crash in the 80's.My memory fails me but I just saw him on Bloomberg and he calls for stocks to rally 6 to 9 months.He is sometimes right but I haven't seen him on televison for a long time.I feel pretty sure he still does a subscriber service.He is calling for gold to tank and oil too.We would need oil to tank for stocks to keep rallying.Anyway if we get a cola like that the PO may offer some incentives for early outs.Here's hoping they do.

COLA update

Back in /m1271, I calculated the COLA using the data for 5 of the 6 months. Today we got the data for July, the 6th month. July's figure was a surprise, most of the experts were thinking .5%, and it was up .8%!!!

Using that data, I'm guessing that our COLA will be AROUND 71 cents/hour, or $1476.80 on an annual basis.

I can't give any guarantees that this is the precise figure, but I think I'm pretty close.

Wow,
  The F fund went up about 7 cents.Wish I was all in on that one today,lol.

Edited by author 08-07-2008 07:14 PM
bb98, that jobless figure was definitely bad news. I heard that the Labor Dept went looking for people to file, which MAY have bumped the figures up a bit, but like your link says, nothing shuts down consumers spending like losing their job.

I'll be out trying to pump up the economy starting tomorrow right after work, so feel free to keep our many readers apprised out there in TSP land.