You take the closed Boxed. Risk reward ratio. If the predictive power of the alien is 100% then if you take the closed box as you are guaranteed a million dollars. If his predictive power is not quite perfect, but highly accurate, you are most likely to get a million dollars if you take the closed box. If the Alien does have 100% predictive power and you take both boxes you are only getting a thousand dollars. If his predictive powers are only extraordinarily good, then if you take both boxes, most likely you will only end up with 1,000 with a very small chance of getting 1,001,000. If the predictive power is 100% and you take the closed box, you get the million which is the highest possible outcome. If his predictive power is only very good, then you still take the closed box, because you are more likely to end up with a million then either the small chance of getting nothing or 1,001,000. If there was a 999 chance in 1,000 of risking a 1,000 to gain a 1,000,000 who wouldn’t take those odd. Certainly beats Vegas or the Stock Market. Of course this all takes on faith that you believe the alien is telling the truth that he has predicted the last 999 in a row.