I'm not at all sure which party would come out the winner if Roe vs. Wade was overturned, but I do think the battle lines in the pro-life/pro-choice debate would be radically overturned, and the Republicans would have their work cut out staying afloat in the storm.

I don't think this is at all comparable to the electorial college issue. Honestly, most Americans don't really care that much about who is president. Abortion comes much closer to home. It's not an abstract issue. A significant percentage of all American women have had one. It's something that touches in a vital way on the lives of many Americans.

Overthrow of Roe vs Wade will energize both camps. But that's the least of the problem. The real problem is that the pro-life camp especially, does not have a fundamental agreement on what they want, only on what they don't want. As soon as Roe vs Wade is gone, the country must decide what exact abortion law we want. The pro-choice people pretty much agree on what they want - basically what we've got. But there is no such consensus in pro-life.

I asked several dozen self-identified pro-life people what abortion laws they'd write if they could. Some wanted to ban all abortions in all cases, and try anyone who had one or performed one for murder. Others wanted to allow it early in pregnancy and allow all sorts of exception - some of these actually advocated abortion laws more liberal than the current ones. They just wanted to stand against the perception of loose morality that they associated with pro-choice. The only unity in the pro-life movement is it's opposition to Roe vs Wade. Take away Roe vs Wade, and it will very likely fall to pieces.

For the Republican party, pro-life has been a free ride. You talk about it, and you pass an occasional law that the courts slap down. You can posture all you like on the subject, and rant and rave, and not actually have to address the real world impact of an abortion ban. You don't have to figure out how to write the laws or how to enforce them. You can act tough on the issue, talk about morality and values, and people will flock to you, but you don't actually have to do anything. If it actually becomes possible to legislate on the subject of abortion, the free ride is over. People will actually expect them to act on all that rhetoric, and that really takes a lot of the fun out of it.

So the Republicans are going to have some fancy footwork to do if Roe falls. The Democratic position is clearer - they'll stand for maintaining pretty much the laws we had, take or give some details like partial birth and parental consent. This doesn't necessarily mean the Republicans will come out the losers though. They've managed some pretty fancy footwork in the past. But the abortion issue is the glue for their social coalition. I have neighbors who explain their vote for Bush as being completely about the abortion issue. They were hard pressed to identify any of his positions on other issues. Instability there is going to be hard for them.

But whatever it does to the Republican party, the fall of Roe will lead to a curtailment of reproductive rights. We shouldn't pretend it would be good news for liberals.