"I don't want to get shot by arrows, but regarding a previous subthread here about gerontology and demographics:"

-- interesting article, but things are moving fast. He quotes India's TFR as 3.1, but according to the just-released CIA World Factbook, it's down to 2.73 as of 2006. Pakistan is falling rapidly, too. Other countries:

Tunisia: 1.74
Algeria: 1.89
Iran: 1.8
Turkey: 1.92
Jordan: 2.63
Morocco: 2.67

The whole belt between Morocco and the Bay of Bengal seems to be well into the demographic transition, and a lot of those countries are not only poor, but economically stagnant or dependent (like Iran) on a wasting resource which will run out fairly soon.

If China's going to have problems by 2025, what will happen when Algeria or Iran hit the same demographic cliff, but with the oil running out and damn-all to replace it as an income stream?