KBK,

You raise some good points at the end of your argument. Unfortunately, a few years of solid political interest, a piddly Bachelor's in political science and a currently low-functioning brain don't combine for a very good answer :)...at least from me.

I disagree, however, with your assertion that Kerry is the most "dull, incoherent, and incompetent Democratic presidential nominee ever," but that is truly a matter of opinion, so we can agree to disagree.

>>>but there wasn't the ebullience you saw among the Democrats.

   The first problem for the Democrats is that everyone of us is full of ebullience - except the nominee, Senator Kerry. The second problem for them is that it seems like every one of them - in everyday conversations, in letters to the editors, in documentaries, in fact, just about everywhere you go, look, or listen - is able to make slam-dunk arguments devastating to George W. Bush - every Democrat, that is EXCEPT Senator Kerry, who is the most dull, incoherent, and incompetent Democratic presidential nominee ever. This man, who I understand was Michael "Mr. Excitement" Dukakis' lt. governor, was clearly chosen for that role because even as he as he towered over Mini-Mike in physical stature, he could be overshadowed by him in the charisma department. After the interregnum of the Clinton years, we are back to abysmally incompetent loser candidates. Is this a reflection on the politicians, or on the Democratic voters?

Edited by author 09-08-2004 07:10 PM
I am not saying that Aaron is totally incorrect in his perception of *this* election (although, I do believe that it is unlikely that Kerry will lose the popular vote and win the election.) or the last one. I am just saying that I believe that in the near future (say a decade out) changing population patterns will probably mean that Republicans will benefit more from the electoral system than Democrats. I also believe that some of them know that.

Actually, Aaron is correct. If a mere 500 more Floridians had cast ballots for Gore while 260,000 votes switched to Bush in the "red" states, the type of outcome that Zogby's current poll suggests would have occurred in 2000. Demographic characteristics of various state electorates can, do and will change, but obviously, this could happen for either party under the current demographic.

And yet, it happened the other way around. Anyhow, I dont doubt that if the Republicans believed that Democrats might start taking the White House with a minority of the popular vote, they would try to change things. I just dont think they are stupid enough to believe that. Well, not the ones with any influence anyhow. Naturally I could come up with some examples of individuals who might not see what demographic trends are likely in the future.

If you recall, the "conventional wisdom" going into the last election was that Gore might win the presidency with a minority of the popular vote and a majority of the electoral vote - while historically this is a "once a century" phenomenon (whatever party is involved), it is not outside the realm of possibility. Thus I was looking for Larry's take on Zogby's tracking poll.

When I noted that my comments about the abolition of the Electoral College were half in jest, it was because of the manner in which the Electoral College was defended last time around - that big pink area in the middle of the Zogby map benefits significantly from the present set-up. But as you probably know, voter conduct and demands aren't always rational - and as you surely know, if the Republicans believe that the Democrats might start taking the White House on a recurring bases with a minority of the popular vote, their stance is likely to change in a heartbeat.

Edited by author 09-08-2004 12:56 AM
Isn't there a bit of trend for people who tend to vote Democratic to concentrate more into urban areas and states with high populations? It seems to me that a Kerry electoral victory with a minority of the popular vote is unlikely. And even if it were to occur, surely those on the right must know that the electoral college system is bound to be a great benefit to them in the years to come.

Moving on to *real* polls, and I know you (Larry) follow them much more closely than I, what should I make of this? Are we looking at a Bush bounce that exists principally in states that were already blue? Could we be looking at the possibility of a Kerry victory with a minority of the popular vote - the sort of horror that will surely lead the House to cry out for the abolition of the Electoral College (I say, only half in jest)?

Okay - I'll call it partisanship and leave it at that.

In any event, the NY Times brings us the latest, um, polls?

D.J. is neither a troll nor stupid (and has been enormously helpful on Political Graveyard), but he is very partisan.

(Is he a troll, or is he just "that stupid"?)

"D.J., you almost parody yourself when you make imbecilic statements like that."

I guess I just hit a little too close to home. ;-)

"Perhaps you missed the Republican National Hatefest? Dirty, negative campaigning at its worst, and you revel in it - while pitching (more) silly, hypocritical attacks at Democrats? Go figure."

Projection... Gotta love it. Does the sun rise in the west in your world ?

"But seriously, perhaps you should bring yourself up to speed on the Swift Boat Liars - such as the prosecutor who admits to have submitted a false affidavit, or the king of the Swift Boat Liars, John O'Neill himself, who now professes that the swift boats didn't go within fifty miles of Cambodia, but thirty years ago told Richard Nixon that he was in Cambodia. (Was he lying then or is he lying now? Either way....)"

Paragraphs like the above, so dripping with hate against real heroes, are the reason why your guy is self-destructing right before our eyes. Again, please don't stop, maybe our President will win by 20% or more. You guys truly are the gift that keeps on giving. ;-)

D.J., you almost parody yourself when you make imbecilic statements like that. Perhaps you missed the Republican National Hatefest? Dirty, negative campaigning at its worst, and you revel in it - while pitching (more) silly, hypocritical attacks at Democrats? Go figure.

But seriously, perhaps you should bring yourself up to speed on the Swift Boat Liars - such as the prosecutor who admits to have submitted a false affidavit, or the king of the Swift Boat Liars, John O'Neill himself, who now professes that the swift boats didn't go within fifty miles of Cambodia, but thirty years ago told Richard Nixon that he was in Cambodia. (Was he lying then or is he lying now? Either way....)

Re: Wolcott's comments.

This fella is obviously a very embittered man suffering from Pauline Kael syndrome. I don't know what on earth he thinks he was watching (well, he did note he was watching it via PBS, which is always a downer, anyhow (aside from Antiques Roadshow, the only uplifting program on the network), but it certainly wasn't what I and the vast viewing public saw. I won't claim President Bush as the most eloquent or electrifying speaker for the GOP (at the convention, that honor fell to Sen. Zell Miller who exposed the frightening danger of Kerry and out-of-control destructiveness of liberal Democrat partisanship), but he again clearly and succinctly laid all the cards on the table without engaging in flights of fancy as the Dem convention did with its mind-numbed hate-Bushie spectators witnessing such hillariously ludicrous spectacles as Kerry's salute and his equally unhinged spouse and race-baiting hustlers like Al Sharpton whose so-called "facts" on African-American enslavement to the Dem planta-, er, why Blacks are so better "served" in their party, could easily be refuted by a 10-second trip to Google. Hate alone, inspiring to fear and narrow extremist interest groups, with the cherry on top of capitulation to international terrorists and tyrants and their blowhard enablers in Ottawa and Paris is not going to win an election without a positive agenda. This definitely isn't JFK's party anymore... it's JFK's. In any event, Mr. Wolcott, yes the President does know he's going to win, because he must. Well, at least you can be happy your Republican hordes are gone, returning back to their abodes in mainstream America and you can blissfully return to Kaelville. Just don't act too surprised when November rolls around and reality bites you hard. Well, you'll always have Paris. ;-)

"A few people have compared how the "best selling" character assassination by the Swift Boat Liars"

And liberals wonder why their guy isn't winning when they continue full-tilt with hateful and slanderous rhetoric like this. Keep up the good work, fellas ! :-)