Edited by author 12-29-2003 05:50 PM
The thing the pundits are ignoring about the Bush vs. Dean matchup numbers is that it's not yet a 1-to-1 matchup. Dean is competing with 8 other Democrats; his percentage is lowered by the people who won't vote for Bush but are thinking, "Eh, I'd rather it were [Edwards, Mosely Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark]." Bush also has the advantage in name recognition and "better the devil we know". So 55-37 now isn't necessarily as good for Bush as it looks -- especially when you consider that when asked "Would you vote for Bush?" instead of "Which would you vote for, Bush or Dean?" the "yes" percentage is sliding below 50%.

I hate to put it this way, as I think we all want the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan to stabilize and improve, and for the economy to rebound. But the Democratic challenger's best changes will come if resistance in Iraq continues to be strong, and if the economy takes another turn to the south. (But I think I'm stating the obvious.)