A case in point is Senator John McCain in 2000. "If you're interested in figuring out why John McCain who went from 15 percent to 34 percent in the national polls within five days of his New Hampshire victory, momentum clearly provides the best explanation," Mayer says. "But if your main interest is in who finally wins the nomination, momentum is really of very little use."

Well, I think there's something of a difference between having a 5-day surge from 15 to 34 and a 5-month surge from nowhere to frontrunner. There's also the fact that McCain had no significant organization on the ground outside NH (and his home state, I suppose) and was unable to capitalize in any way on his bump.

For what it's worth, I still think you're being coy. It's clear that for whatever reason you've lost your shine for Howard Dean. Still no specifics on that other than the somewhat murky attack against "negative campaigning." Sure he's critical of the others on the war vote, but doesn't that fall under the domain of legitimate critique? They are running against one another here, and it's not like he's posting attack websited (e.g. http://www.deanfacts.com).

Oh, and I saw you use the adjective "Gravitas." Leaning Kerry? =)