| Jim Snyder-Grant
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02-09-2003 10:03 PM ET (US)
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A nation or an empire that has more power and influence than any other (a 'superpower') seems always to start acting paranoid & power-hungry. What happens next?
A)Is it possible for a superpower to mellow out & become wise? B) Or simply quietly decay without messing up big pieces of the rest of the world with war? C) Or meet up with another new kind of power that neutralizes it?
I think about the big superpowers of the past: China, Rome, the Maya, Great Britain..and I see them falling in to these categories. Whither the US? I think the Iraq2028 conference may begin to see an answer, though I suspect that the US is so large and rich and influential a country that its fate will still be spinning in the balance by 2028. But the upcoming events of the next few weeks will provide important clues.
For example, consider the difference between these possible futures:
1) U.N. Security Council approves an incursion against Iraq and many countries act together, as in the first gulf war.
2) U.S., and a couple of allies, act alone without Security Council approval.
3) US & UN reach some intermediate agreement, such as the 'more intrusive inspections' schemes currently making the rounds in diplomatic circles, and containment continues. After a while, containment is declared successful enough, sanctions are lifted, and ideas, money, food, influence and power flow in to the Iraqi middle class. The newly strong middle class finally gets its act together & overthrows Saddam.
I'm praying for the mellowing into wisdom of the US (path A) & the unfolding of some plan like (3) but I don't see a lot of historical precedent. What seems more likely is the quick collapse of Iraq, and the slow collapse of the U.S.
The optimism of this website -- Iraq2028 -- is the vision that both of these countries, and their neighbors, will have the sort of resilience and creativity to survive with the best parts of their cultures intact for at least another 25 years. I hope so.
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