The current hesitations in Shuttle operations are, as with the post-Challenger interruption, apparently temporary. The gap between Shuttle and CEV looks deliberate. And it's far enough ahead that people can plan for it.

There's all sorts of reasons why not to expect a Chinese Apollo program, and a good deal of the original which was slowed by the newness of the tech and the environment--no capsule fire forcing a redesign.

But the history says that 8 years is enough time to do something big in manned spaceflight.