I found your report on the Antelope Valley interesting and very thorough regarding statistics,facts and local history, and although I agree with most of it, I definitely do not agree with the idea of ANY high density housing being added to the Antelope Valley, or anywhere else in this country. I am 37 years old and I grew up in the West San Fernando Valley and have continually had friends and relatives who have lived in the Antelope Valley and close surrounding areas going back to 1947. I have only lived here in A.V. a year ( beginning in June 2002 ) and I am not a permanent resident of A.V., or a current homeowner, but use this location currently as a convenience for my type of work. I stay with a friend who is a homeowner in Palmdale. Despite that I have spent much time out here over the many years prior. I am a historian, geographer, and am very well educated with degrees in criminal justice, history and psychology. This only matters as I am a writer as well and research many topics in my spare time and for a living, so I am knowledgeable about the area to a very high degree. I have traveled every hiking trail, fire road, access road and back country area within 100 miles of A.V. in all directions due to my love of the outdoors, remote locations and even camping. I believe that all you have to do is examine the effects of high density housing in any major city and on the residents living in it, and you will have your answer right there as to not only how " urban sprawl " developed, but why high density housing so obviously does not work. It is clearly ignoring the lessons of that history and the crowding of these many areas in cities ( especially L.A. ), that would cause anyone to even suggest high density housing in an area so absolutely and clearly unsuited for it as Palmdale is. People will never stop coming to California as long as they are allowed to do so. The only thing that will stop urban sprawl is a lack of population to bring it about in the first place. Do you see that happening? Yes it will finally happen, but only after the greater Los Angeles area has used up all of it's resources to the point where it cannot support any further development or residents. At that tine they would have to control the incoming population to this state as they did in 1933, but most likely in an even more stringent manner. Would they ever do that? No, of course not as each one of those new residents is more tax revenue for our greedy county and state. I see some large contradictions in your report such as you mentioning the problems with maintaining long term water sources for the Antelope Valley, but then turning around and suggesting that perhaps Palmdale and Lancaster should pack the people in even tighter against the 14 corridor. You specifically mention Palmdale's guidelines for lot sizes no smaller than 7,000 square feet as if that's a bad thing, but then proceed to point out that this same area will eventually be losing underground acquifers which provide much water. If the resources are dwindling, then how exactly do you see supporting four-six families on 7,000 square feet, if eventually it will be difficult to even support one? Not only that, but because Palmdale's crime rate is significantly high for the population size, cramming people together will only add to that and create more friction and violence. This is even more true when you consider that unless you are living in a Beverly Hills townhouse or condo by choice, the general consensus is that you are not successful and perhaps even somewhat downtrodden if you are forced to live so close to others. Familiarity breeds contempt. I used to live in a very expensive ( over priced ) apartment building in Woodland Hills. Before that I lived in another rather pricy building in the same neighborhood. I had always lived in nice West Valley single family home neighborhoods all my life prior to that, except for one stint in Studio City. My first idea about these apartments before moving to them was generally that they were safe, it was a good neighborhood, the people were respectful, little or no crime existed within them ,the tenants were screened to some effect, etc, etc. Well during just my residency ( four years ) at the most expensive location, there was constant domestic violence issues with many of the tenants, kids bringing their gang friends on to the property and causing violence or damage, numerous car thefts despite security gates, cameras and 24/7 security guards, physical fights over parking and the close proximity of some of the parking spaces, constant complaints about music and television noise, several break ins, three that were right near my apartment, someone being thrown off a balcony during a dispute, dogs living in the building despite severe regulations against it, homeless people sleeping in the very large bushes right under my window and proceeding to light them on fire, one murder from a midnight gang member intrusion, two seperate men hauled away for molesting their daughters, one person high on meth screaming as he was hauled away, one suicide of a tenant at the location, grafitti being done continually which turned out to be kids living on site, someone selling crack very blatantly and who was removed, a rat infestation at one corner of the building that was out of control, someone drowning in the pool in summer, the pool being closed all of another summer as several parents kept letting their toddlers defecate in it, two drunk drivers who at diffrent times lost control near the grounds and slammed into parked cars ( mine was one of those damaged ), an apartment that was being used 24/7 for prostitution ( very, very common in Woodland Hills by the way ), and many other smaller but negative and irritating problems that affected your comfort level and lifestyle. My desire for a quiet, private retreat as I thought being off in a far corner of the building would give me, was never realized. I would come home for lunch or after work and constantly see the police out front, about twice a week. If you think this building was unique and had an exceptional amount of bad things happening , you are mistaken. The other place I lived near it prior ( apartment ) had the same issues going on nonstop and as for my friends and associates who live in buildings now with over 50 units, some of these problems are commonplace. These events also hardly ever make any news cast, and only occasionally the newspaper. The point is that you have to either be inexperienced with what high density housing brings or just plain naive to even suggest that it is a " great " viable alternative to any area, especially A.V. where despite crime levels many still consider most of the outer lying areas here rural. There is no solution to urban sprawl except for the people to go away. They never will. You mention the lack of desire people have in A.V. for getting to know their neighbors, and you speak of it as if that would solve a lot. The issues go far beyond that. Knowing your neighbors will not stop them from dealing drugs, or any other vices they may have. It will only cause you to " maybe " know about them a little sooner. I have noticed that Los Angeles in general is not a place where people want to know their neighbors, and it has nothing to do with long commutes and how busy or tired they are as you suggest. It has to do with lack of commonalities between them. Some can bridge that gap and others do not want to take the time to. I have had more neighbors approach me friendly in A.V., then I ever did all the years I grew up in the valley. People do not like to share their personal business as too many get involved in it in a fashion that they do not have a place to. I respect that, because it has happened to me also with negative results. On top of this you hardly make better and faster neighbors in confined living zones. People in closer living proximity are likely and mostly in my experience to be even more stand offish as they are trying to keep a distance that isn't really there. I have seen this with everyone I ever knew who lived in anything but single detached homes. When I lived in apartments the people all around me were always moving because they wanted a house and a different life. There was no time to get close to anyone as they never stayed around long enough. Honestly though, if people want their single family homes and the privacy that may go with it, do you really feel the answer is to shove them together in close proximity and " make " them get along? This is your solution to urban sprawl? Well we have sure seen in history how well forcing people into unpopular things has worked haven't we? I do not like track homes at all really, and I never have. I realize though that the demand for them is there and always will be. If you have a family or even just a couple who have moved to A.V. because the cost of living is lower, do you really feel that they are going to be happy crammed in an apartment, or even worse investing in a condo or townhouse in a place that has millions of acres of open land? Who would want that and who in their right mind would do that unless they have no options? There are other ways to deal with transportation problems that have not been addressed by L.A. officials as everyone knows. If you are going to make a commute to A.V. and can afford to buy, aren't you going to want to have something to show for that effort besides some small hole in the wall place that you could live in anywhere? Why would you commute for that? People move out here so that they can have a yard, and a decent house. Not all succeed, but that's their dream and should not be denied because some of you want to create a huge urban area crammed with tenants and concrete that would take away the reasons that they came out here to begin with. Palmdale has it's problems, definitely, but why propose something to only make them worse in the future?

Edited by author 07-01-2003 10:41 PM
I, too, stumbled onto your report, and found it interesting enough to give it a read. I'm also glad to see that you are entertaining comments on it. I disagree entirely with LMG /m3 and would like Mike K /m6 to give me a shout - I would love to buy his house so he can move to Oregon.

But mostly, I will say that while I commend you for the thoroughness of your report, I have to concur with Ravenna on the conclusion that you have indeed missed the mark:

The answer to "urban sprawl" lies not in the "sprawl", but in the "urban".

On a practical level, yes, the political entities responsible for the AV should have handled things better. From what I have read recently, that is now occurring to some degree. And, yes, captiatl and developers should try and grow frontal lobes before we become extinct from their lack of social conscience. But the survival of the race despite urban sprawl is a matter of adaptation and problem solving.

AV had California's first WalMart? Guess what? Now they have three. That should help with that constant auto use that sprawl generates. I mean, if I want to go to WalMart, I have to drive 30 miles east or west - that is unless I want to make a day of it and go to all three in AV!

Sorry, I'm only jesting - though I do like to shop at WalMart and wish it was closer. My real point is this:

Look at that collapsed freeway from the 1994 quake. How long did it take to rebuild it? Fairly well record time, I would say - undoubtedly faster than the first one. Why? Because real people took a concern and made it happen.

Your thesis is all well and good, in the 20-20 hindsight sections. But slightly myopic looking ahead. You underrate the ability of people to change their social landscape, and to create a better situation for themselves. And that is where Ravenna's message /m7 makes a good point:

I have lived in apartments a good part of my 47 years, too. I have never wanted to own a home, never personally had the drive to do so. But I do understand it, and it is as she has presented it. People need some space. They need the freedom to choose whether or not to form social bonds based on physical presence. Only the choice is needed.

High-density housing is not the answer - or did you never notice how utterly popular it is for prisons and the impoverished in "the projects"?

I would say that you have taken a good historical look at an area and attempted to make sense out of how it got to be hat way. Perhaps this is the liability of trying to present a homogenous overview, with acceptable generalizations of diverse elements. However rather than look far enough forward to see how it will be handled into the future, you saddle it with a label and a condition that are themselves antiquated.

"Urban sprawl" is an old concept that will pass away with the idea that "the city is the center", or that one has to live elsewhere than where he "makes his living" - just as it has in other times and other places. What will not pass, is that there are real people involved, and people will always manage, in the end.

Doug [ djlong3000 at yahoo dot com ]

Edited by author 11-13-2003 12:06 AM
This was an excellent report and economic account of the true costs associated with urban sprawl.
North America needs a market solution to replace sprawl. The solution must not require government subsidies, and it must be low cost. We need car-free urban form. If anyone knows of such developments please post.

 jkosatsky@yahoo.com

I moved to the AV from Kentucky several months ago. From my own observations, I had a culture shock from the housing situation in the AV. Homes whose styles span every decade since the 50's are built on dead end streets. And now, more new neighborhoods with dead end streets and empty lots between houses. Instead of finishing something, they just build more dead-end streets. Not only are the neighborhoods not finished, the houses themselves are of poor quality. From the wood used for the frames to the carpet they slap down in tract homes to the shoddy drywall technique to the lousy windows, it is all CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP! It makes me appreciate the quality of my parents' house in Kentucky.
We did go house-hunting for a place to live, and mortgage lenders wanted to process us through and approve us that day (a Sunday, no less)(and more money than we could afford)and move us into a house that week. They told us grand stories about Rosamond being on the verge of the development that Palmdale started seeing in the 80's. They said we should hurry, hurry, hurry to get in on it before prices went up more. They seemed to be following some odd group mentality driven by greed. Greed was clouding reason, I thought. The dead-ends and empty lots testify that home prices will fall again.
We will not subject ourselves to that kind of market for a poor quality house. We will wait until we can build our own.
I will always appreciate the good things about Kentucky, but I love the AV landscape, and I love living so close to many things I would not see in Kentucky.

Looks like it has been awhile since anyone left a message. I have lived in the A.V. for 30 years. WOW what a change. When it came time for me to have children we relocated to California City to get away from the crime and high housing costs. We purchased house in Cal. City for $55,000. Today it sold for $120,000. Unbelievable!! This tells me that all of southern California is going to be like the San Fernando Valley. I stayed in Washingtion for 6 months and plan on returning. The only way to make it here is to live in debt or live off the system. NO THANK YOU!

Hi everyone. I am a realtor in Sherman Oaks and recently I have been confronted to Palmdale. I was helping him get a house and we opened escrow yeaterday finally. I was impressed by Palmdale, clean, clear, Pretty cool. I like the high desert so!
since I have been asking questions to a lot of people cause I want to buy a house over there for me. I have been hearing things like:" there will be soon a bullet train from downtown LA and an International airport in 2007 etc.... I was wondering what is your prediction and your feelings about Palmdale development, say, in the next 3 years .
you can answer me direct if you want www.nathanx.com . I am really interested as I feel this is the future of LA county and may be it is a good idea to invest or build there. Let me know.
Sincerely,
Xavier Nathan

IT SUCKS THERE IS CRIME, BAD KIDS, DRUGS. I MOVED HERE FROM TUJUNGA CALIFORNIA AND I MISS THAT SHIT HOLE! I GO TO A HOME SCHOOL PROGRAM TO TRY TO GET MY HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION!

I think anyone who is considering a move to the Antelope Valley (especially if a home purchase is a consideration) should visit and carefully read every article on this web site.

I purchased a home in Lancaster in 1989 and watched the property values decline year after year. Since residing in the Antelope Valley I have observed many negative factors. I have inspected hundreds of boarded-up foreclosures; observed neighborhoods in which almost a third of the homes appeared vacant; and resided next door to two boarded-up foreclosed homes. At one time, my home was worth about 50% of what I had paid for it.

Although times have changed, one simply should not forget the past. Your thesis topics of SOCIAL FRICTION AND CRIME as well as THE RESPONSIBILITY OF CAPITAL are factors that have affected my everyday life.

In the real estate profession, I have firsthand knowledge of a buyers purchase price, downpayment, and the comparables sales in the area. The most striking feature I noted lately when conducting my course of business is that almost every home purchaser in the Antelope Valley is putting no money down on a home. They will obtain a second trust deed to avoid paying PMI (Primary Mortgage Insurance). This is most common at the lower end of the area price range. To me, this spells trouble in the future if property values stabilize or decline.

It appears that the home purchasers (usually inexperienced first time homebuyers) are assuming that if a Mortgage Broker approves them for a loan, then that means that they have received professional advise from a certified financial planner and should take that loan. From the lenders standpoint, they can simply sell that loan to Fannie Mae or other agencies of the secondary mortgage market and relieve themself of any future liability of that loan.

As a prior resident of the area (I recently moved out of the area for reasons I will now explain), I have experienced the SOCIAL FRICTION AND CRIME firsthand. I moved to a nice westside location in 2001 only to be assaulted by a neighbor because my wife told his kids to stop loitering in a water retention basin. Also, the Antelope Valley may be booming in terms of single family housing construction but this is not being matched by industry. Approximately 30% of the employed population commute out of the area for employment. The AV's reliance on aerospace has not changed much since the last downturn in the real estate market. It only makes sense that if the head of household is not home during most of the day to supervise their children, the children have plenty of time to do whatever they want, including vandalism and gang activity.

I am not saying that the Antelope Valley is going to hell in a handbasket. However, factors such as lack of industry, evidence of crime/gang activity, a declining water table-shifts in the ground level, and a possible earthquake at a fault located really closeby are reality that should not be overlooked simply because one can snatch up a brand new home of their own at a really good price.

I think your thesis may appear to paint a negative picture of the Antelope Valley if you have a biased opinion of the area, however, I think you are providing a reader with information essential for their understanding of the area. Please keep us updated on future discoveries!

The Antelope Valley is growing quickly with the City of Palmdale approaching a 200,000 person population. The nieghborhoods are smartly planned, streets are clean and well organized, houses are big and nice, and the quality of life is better than ever! ;) so long Los Angeles!

I stumbled on this site after checking for Ritter Ranch sites. I agree that the development of this area has resulted in a large scale raping of the land. I recently took some pictures from a ridge overlooking a large expanse of land to be developed by Ritter Ranch. I took those pictures for historical purposes for the future generations of Leona Valley or anyone else that would be interested. As I looked out across Boquet Canyon Road to the east I wondered what the Native American ancestors would be thinking now if they saw what we are doing to their land.

They lived here for thousands of years and the white man has only been here for what?! A couple hundred?! And look what we have done to the earth and the ecosystem in that short time!!

I recently moved here from the Central Coast where some of the cities have adopted a growth policy, partly due to the water availablility. A.V. and LA County seems to be water greedy and have begun implementing policies to rob the american farmer/rancher of their way of life. All so the developers can build more houses and cause a downward spiral in the quality of life for everyone and everything that lives here. This is disgusting and a crime against God and humanity!

Debbia wrote this: "I wondered what the Native American ancestors would be thinking now if they saw what we are doing to their land. They lived here for thousands of years and the white man has only been here for what?! A couple hundred?! And look what we have done to the earth and the ecosystem in that short time!!"

Debbia, you are a real idiot. Native Americans also did damage to the earth and devastated animal groups. It's a matter of the number of people occupying a particular space - not their race and skin color. Grow up.

John, everyone is entitled to their opinion. One can only hope that we learn from past histories.

In the Antelope Valley alone, Beautiful homes are being built everyday, while recreational youth programs are being put on hold. The population in this Valley is rapidly rising to a high 20,000 people, and almost half of them are teenagers with little to do. With little recreation teenagers get board and turn to drugs, alcohol and violence to balance out their some of their basic needs. The violence in this community will continue to rise until something is done. Only miracles happen overnight, and I’m not asking for a miracle. I just want change.

Ok, we're closing escrow on our very first home in west lancaster, what's really going on over there?

I'm thinking of moving to Palmdale because the houses are affordable and you seem to get more bang for your buck. I can't find a 3000 sq ft house anywhere in los angeles for less than $1 million, which makes Palmdale so attractive.

My question is, is it really that bad? Everytime I go up there, it seems okay. It doesn't seem like a bad place to live.

Is crime generally everywhere, or is it centralized to certain locations?