I'm thinking of moving to Palmdale because the houses are affordable and you seem to get more bang for your buck. I can't find a 3000 sq ft house anywhere in los angeles for less than $1 million, which makes Palmdale so attractive.

My question is, is it really that bad? Everytime I go up there, it seems okay. It doesn't seem like a bad place to live.

Is crime generally everywhere, or is it centralized to certain locations?

Ok, we're closing escrow on our very first home in west lancaster, what's really going on over there?

In the Antelope Valley alone, Beautiful homes are being built everyday, while recreational youth programs are being put on hold. The population in this Valley is rapidly rising to a high 20,000 people, and almost half of them are teenagers with little to do. With little recreation teenagers get board and turn to drugs, alcohol and violence to balance out their some of their basic needs. The violence in this community will continue to rise until something is done. Only miracles happen overnight, and I’m not asking for a miracle. I just want change.

John, everyone is entitled to their opinion. One can only hope that we learn from past histories.

Debbia wrote this: "I wondered what the Native American ancestors would be thinking now if they saw what we are doing to their land. They lived here for thousands of years and the white man has only been here for what?! A couple hundred?! And look what we have done to the earth and the ecosystem in that short time!!"

Debbia, you are a real idiot. Native Americans also did damage to the earth and devastated animal groups. It's a matter of the number of people occupying a particular space - not their race and skin color. Grow up.

I stumbled on this site after checking for Ritter Ranch sites. I agree that the development of this area has resulted in a large scale raping of the land. I recently took some pictures from a ridge overlooking a large expanse of land to be developed by Ritter Ranch. I took those pictures for historical purposes for the future generations of Leona Valley or anyone else that would be interested. As I looked out across Boquet Canyon Road to the east I wondered what the Native American ancestors would be thinking now if they saw what we are doing to their land.

They lived here for thousands of years and the white man has only been here for what?! A couple hundred?! And look what we have done to the earth and the ecosystem in that short time!!

I recently moved here from the Central Coast where some of the cities have adopted a growth policy, partly due to the water availablility. A.V. and LA County seems to be water greedy and have begun implementing policies to rob the american farmer/rancher of their way of life. All so the developers can build more houses and cause a downward spiral in the quality of life for everyone and everything that lives here. This is disgusting and a crime against God and humanity!

The Antelope Valley is growing quickly with the City of Palmdale approaching a 200,000 person population. The nieghborhoods are smartly planned, streets are clean and well organized, houses are big and nice, and the quality of life is better than ever! ;) so long Los Angeles!

I think anyone who is considering a move to the Antelope Valley (especially if a home purchase is a consideration) should visit and carefully read every article on this web site.

I purchased a home in Lancaster in 1989 and watched the property values decline year after year. Since residing in the Antelope Valley I have observed many negative factors. I have inspected hundreds of boarded-up foreclosures; observed neighborhoods in which almost a third of the homes appeared vacant; and resided next door to two boarded-up foreclosed homes. At one time, my home was worth about 50% of what I had paid for it.

Although times have changed, one simply should not forget the past. Your thesis topics of SOCIAL FRICTION AND CRIME as well as THE RESPONSIBILITY OF CAPITAL are factors that have affected my everyday life.

In the real estate profession, I have firsthand knowledge of a buyers purchase price, downpayment, and the comparables sales in the area. The most striking feature I noted lately when conducting my course of business is that almost every home purchaser in the Antelope Valley is putting no money down on a home. They will obtain a second trust deed to avoid paying PMI (Primary Mortgage Insurance). This is most common at the lower end of the area price range. To me, this spells trouble in the future if property values stabilize or decline.

It appears that the home purchasers (usually inexperienced first time homebuyers) are assuming that if a Mortgage Broker approves them for a loan, then that means that they have received professional advise from a certified financial planner and should take that loan. From the lenders standpoint, they can simply sell that loan to Fannie Mae or other agencies of the secondary mortgage market and relieve themself of any future liability of that loan.

As a prior resident of the area (I recently moved out of the area for reasons I will now explain), I have experienced the SOCIAL FRICTION AND CRIME firsthand. I moved to a nice westside location in 2001 only to be assaulted by a neighbor because my wife told his kids to stop loitering in a water retention basin. Also, the Antelope Valley may be booming in terms of single family housing construction but this is not being matched by industry. Approximately 30% of the employed population commute out of the area for employment. The AV's reliance on aerospace has not changed much since the last downturn in the real estate market. It only makes sense that if the head of household is not home during most of the day to supervise their children, the children have plenty of time to do whatever they want, including vandalism and gang activity.

I am not saying that the Antelope Valley is going to hell in a handbasket. However, factors such as lack of industry, evidence of crime/gang activity, a declining water table-shifts in the ground level, and a possible earthquake at a fault located really closeby are reality that should not be overlooked simply because one can snatch up a brand new home of their own at a really good price.

I think your thesis may appear to paint a negative picture of the Antelope Valley if you have a biased opinion of the area, however, I think you are providing a reader with information essential for their understanding of the area. Please keep us updated on future discoveries!

IT SUCKS THERE IS CRIME, BAD KIDS, DRUGS. I MOVED HERE FROM TUJUNGA CALIFORNIA AND I MISS THAT SHIT HOLE! I GO TO A HOME SCHOOL PROGRAM TO TRY TO GET MY HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION!

Hi everyone. I am a realtor in Sherman Oaks and recently I have been confronted to Palmdale. I was helping him get a house and we opened escrow yeaterday finally. I was impressed by Palmdale, clean, clear, Pretty cool. I like the high desert so!
since I have been asking questions to a lot of people cause I want to buy a house over there for me. I have been hearing things like:" there will be soon a bullet train from downtown LA and an International airport in 2007 etc.... I was wondering what is your prediction and your feelings about Palmdale development, say, in the next 3 years .
you can answer me direct if you want www.nathanx.com . I am really interested as I feel this is the future of LA county and may be it is a good idea to invest or build there. Let me know.
Sincerely,
Xavier Nathan

Looks like it has been awhile since anyone left a message. I have lived in the A.V. for 30 years. WOW what a change. When it came time for me to have children we relocated to California City to get away from the crime and high housing costs. We purchased house in Cal. City for $55,000. Today it sold for $120,000. Unbelievable!! This tells me that all of southern California is going to be like the San Fernando Valley. I stayed in Washingtion for 6 months and plan on returning. The only way to make it here is to live in debt or live off the system. NO THANK YOU!

I moved to the AV from Kentucky several months ago. From my own observations, I had a culture shock from the housing situation in the AV. Homes whose styles span every decade since the 50's are built on dead end streets. And now, more new neighborhoods with dead end streets and empty lots between houses. Instead of finishing something, they just build more dead-end streets. Not only are the neighborhoods not finished, the houses themselves are of poor quality. From the wood used for the frames to the carpet they slap down in tract homes to the shoddy drywall technique to the lousy windows, it is all CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP! It makes me appreciate the quality of my parents' house in Kentucky.
We did go house-hunting for a place to live, and mortgage lenders wanted to process us through and approve us that day (a Sunday, no less)(and more money than we could afford)and move us into a house that week. They told us grand stories about Rosamond being on the verge of the development that Palmdale started seeing in the 80's. They said we should hurry, hurry, hurry to get in on it before prices went up more. They seemed to be following some odd group mentality driven by greed. Greed was clouding reason, I thought. The dead-ends and empty lots testify that home prices will fall again.
We will not subject ourselves to that kind of market for a poor quality house. We will wait until we can build our own.
I will always appreciate the good things about Kentucky, but I love the AV landscape, and I love living so close to many things I would not see in Kentucky.

Edited by author 11-13-2003 12:06 AM
This was an excellent report and economic account of the true costs associated with urban sprawl.
North America needs a market solution to replace sprawl. The solution must not require government subsidies, and it must be low cost. We need car-free urban form. If anyone knows of such developments please post.

 jkosatsky@yahoo.com

Edited by author 07-01-2003 10:41 PM
I, too, stumbled onto your report, and found it interesting enough to give it a read. I'm also glad to see that you are entertaining comments on it. I disagree entirely with LMG /m3 and would like Mike K /m6 to give me a shout - I would love to buy his house so he can move to Oregon.

But mostly, I will say that while I commend you for the thoroughness of your report, I have to concur with Ravenna on the conclusion that you have indeed missed the mark:

The answer to "urban sprawl" lies not in the "sprawl", but in the "urban".

On a practical level, yes, the political entities responsible for the AV should have handled things better. From what I have read recently, that is now occurring to some degree. And, yes, captiatl and developers should try and grow frontal lobes before we become extinct from their lack of social conscience. But the survival of the race despite urban sprawl is a matter of adaptation and problem solving.

AV had California's first WalMart? Guess what? Now they have three. That should help with that constant auto use that sprawl generates. I mean, if I want to go to WalMart, I have to drive 30 miles east or west - that is unless I want to make a day of it and go to all three in AV!

Sorry, I'm only jesting - though I do like to shop at WalMart and wish it was closer. My real point is this:

Look at that collapsed freeway from the 1994 quake. How long did it take to rebuild it? Fairly well record time, I would say - undoubtedly faster than the first one. Why? Because real people took a concern and made it happen.

Your thesis is all well and good, in the 20-20 hindsight sections. But slightly myopic looking ahead. You underrate the ability of people to change their social landscape, and to create a better situation for themselves. And that is where Ravenna's message /m7 makes a good point:

I have lived in apartments a good part of my 47 years, too. I have never wanted to own a home, never personally had the drive to do so. But I do understand it, and it is as she has presented it. People need some space. They need the freedom to choose whether or not to form social bonds based on physical presence. Only the choice is needed.

High-density housing is not the answer - or did you never notice how utterly popular it is for prisons and the impoverished in "the projects"?

I would say that you have taken a good historical look at an area and attempted to make sense out of how it got to be hat way. Perhaps this is the liability of trying to present a homogenous overview, with acceptable generalizations of diverse elements. However rather than look far enough forward to see how it will be handled into the future, you saddle it with a label and a condition that are themselves antiquated.

"Urban sprawl" is an old concept that will pass away with the idea that "the city is the center", or that one has to live elsewhere than where he "makes his living" - just as it has in other times and other places. What will not pass, is that there are real people involved, and people will always manage, in the end.

Doug [ djlong3000 at yahoo dot com ]